Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 3

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There’s a lot to look forward to Week 3 in the National Football League. Still early in the season, fantasy owners have yet to see whether their draft strategy has been a success of failure (unless you drafted Tom Brady).

It’s also easy to fall in love with your waiver wire wonders early on. But you have to remember to be patient with your stars, and don’t make irrational starts that’ll have the Monday Night Countdown crew saying, “C’mon man!”

Start ‘Em

The last time the Bears and Packers met, it was the NFC Championship game and Jay Cutler had a sour puss tattooed on his face. After an offseason of criticism and a mediocre effort against the Saints last week, Cutler is poised for a strong game.

The Bears' Jay Cutler last faced the Packers in the NFC Championship game, when he sat out the second half due to injury. (Credit: beargoggleson.com)

Green Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 800 yards, (Drew Brees: 419 yards; Cam Newton: 432 yards). With safety Nick Collins set to miss the remainder of the season, the depleted Packers secondary faces a motivated Cutler, atSoldier Field, in a rivalry game. Bet on Cutler.

Looking back at all of the offseason moves, theKevin Kolb trade, thus far, has proven to be a success. In two starts, Kolb has thrown for 560 yards and four touchdowns — I don’t think anybody is missing Max Hall or John Skelton in the desert now.

It’ll be a tougher test on the road in Seattle, though, facing a Seahawks defense that is holding opposing offenses to just about 100 yards per game. If the Cards can’t establish a running game with Beanie Wells, they’ll rely on Kolb to get on the board. It’s not even fair how Larry Fitzgerald stacks up the Seahawks’ defensive backs. Look smart; start Kolb.

In the mold of a Jerome Bettis or a Stephen Davis, Mike Tolbert is the Chargers’  bowling ball of a running back, and this week he’ll look more like he did Week 1 against the Vikings.

The Kansas City Chiefs, off to a profound 0-2 start, are on the road, facing a Chargers team that just suffered a disappointing loss against New England. The Chiefs are allowing multifaceted backs to run all over them.

Fred Jackson torched ‘em for 112 yards in Week 1, while Darren McFadden rewarded his fantasy owners with 143 total yards and two touchdowns, one on the ground and one via the air. After Philip Rivers leads the Chargers to a two-touchdown lead, expect Tolbert to seal the deal.

So it’s been the Cam Newton show so far, but this week the Panthers are actually favored against the Jags. Newton has tossed a shocking 854 yards, but in an offense in which he’s averaging 40 attempts per game.

Against the Jags, who are starting fellow first-round draft pick Blaine Gabbert, picked 10 picks after Cam, the Panthers should take an early lead as Gabbert struggles to move the chains.

This might be the welcome back party for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The dynamic duo has a combined 30 rushing attempts in two games. Look for Ron Rivera to remember he’s got $43 million man in his backfield.

The Ravens were embarrassed Week 2 in Nashville, allowing Kenny Britt to have his way with the secondary en route to 135 yards and a score. You would think John Harbaugh would have his defense ready to make amends for that horrid effort against the winless Rams this week…don’t count on it.

Brandon Gibson is one of three Rams receivers who could be poised to beat up on the Ravens' secondary. (Credit: sportschannelnews.com)

The Rams, desperate for their first “W” and playing in front of the home crowd, are going to attack the Baltimore secondary. The Ravens’ defensive front will shut down whoever lines up in the Rams’ backfield — if it’s Steven Jackson there’s a glimpse of hope; otherwise don’t bother starting his back-up (Cadillac Williams or Jerious Norwood).

Whatever offense the Rams muster up, it’ll be through the air. Look for Brandon Gibson to make his first stamp in the fantasy football world. But if you own Danario Alexander, who was the most-targeted Rams wideout last week, or Mike Sims-Walker, the most proven of the bunch, don’t be afraid to make them your WR3 or flex.

Sit ‘Em

This seems peculiar, but I’m advising you to bench Shonn Greene against the Oakland Raiders, the NFL’s sixth-worst run defense.

Greene, always a candidate to break out as an elite running back, is averaging just 13 carries in the first two games. Despite the lackluster workload, he’s barely getting three yards per attempt.

The Jets are relying on Mark Sanchez to pass them to victories. Well, it has been working, but travelling to the West Coast to face a talented defensive front seven — not exactly the right formula for Greene to have a big day.

Expect Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller to have a greater impact than Greene will on Sunday. In the Raiders’ home opener, they’re not letting Gang Green run all over them.

Jamaal Charles had the chance to be the No. 1 fantasy back in 2011. A torn ACL later, teams that put their faith in Charles to be their star are scurrying for his replacement. My advice: don’t look the other Chiefs.

Head coach Todd Haley is looking to go with a running back-by-committee approach, meaning Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster and even Le’Ron McClain are candidates for touches.

To be fair to Jones, he looks like he can be still compete in the league. He’s as ripped up as Rambo, but he can’t carry the rock…at all. McCluster, more a slot-receiver and Wildcat quarterback, will only receive a handful of touches in the backfield; he doesn’t have the ability to be a featured back. And there’s no sign that McClain is going to move from the fullback position.

If you’re looking to replace Charles on your roster, check the waiver wire for other solutions. Like Charles’ season, the Chiefs are done. Their offense is going to be putrid; I’d sell all of the Chiefs if I could.

Denarius Moore torched the Bills for 146 yards Week 2, but now he's bound for a trip to Revis Island.

benching Denarius Moore. Sure he torched the Bills for 146 yards last week, and Hue Jackson said he’s going to get the talented wideout more involved in the offense. But this week, he gets the Revis

So he was my pick for breakout rookie, but this week I’m 

Island treatment.

Darrelle Revis is going to shadow the Raiders’ most potent wideout like white on rice. Sure, he’s third on the depth chart. But Jacoby Ford has yet to practice this week and he’s questionable to even see the field. Darrius Heyward-Bey is available; tell me the last time he made an impact.

The Raiders’ passing game is going to be stifled by Revis and the Jets secondary. McFadden is the only Raider worth starting Week 3.

Originally posted on; 

http://thecovertwo.com/2011/09/start-em-sit-em-week-3/

Fantasy: What to look for tomorrow

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What to Watch For

There are some things we’ll never be able to figure out, especially after Week 1, Bill Belichick. But fantasy-wise, we can get a gage on the situation in primary ball carriers and most-targeted receivers.

Here’s a look at what to look for tomorrow:

Reggie Bush is the Miami Dolphins’ starting running back. For the first time in his career, the former Heisman Trophy winner will be the featured back, receiving the bulk of carries in the Wildcat formation.

Bush has also played second fiddle to either Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas, and has not received much praise because his electric playmaking ability did not exactly translate from USC to the pros.

For the first time in his career, Reggie Bush is expected to be a featured back. (Credit: Miami Herald)

From 2006 to the 2008, though, Bush’s yards-per-attempt average did rise, and in injury-shortened seasons in 2009 and 2010 he averaged 5.6 and 4.2 yards per rush, respectively.

There is, however, a power back listed second on the depth chart. Former Kansas State star, Daniel Thomas, could be the Dolphins’ short-yardage and goal line back, though reports from the preseason have not been too encouraging for the rookie.

And then there’s Lex Hilliard, another bruiser who could earn carries. Entering his third season with Miami, Hilliard will have an opportunity to impress the coaching staff with Thomas listed as questionable for Monday night’s match-up against New England.

Don’t trust that Bush can be the every-down back, but Miami did begin the Wildcat trend in the National Football League. They traded for Bush and put their faith in him for a reason.

What is the deal with the Raiders’ wide receiving corps? According to their depth chart, Jacoby Ford andDarrius Heyward-Bey will start, but this is Oakland we’re talking about it. The R-R-Raiders.

Louis Murphy, currently recovering from sports hernia surgery last month, most likely will not be available until Week 3. Zach Miller has been the team’s leading receiver, but among wideouts Murphy has been the leader in receptions and yardage for two straight seasons.

With Murphy out, it’s a chance for Ford, Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore to Wally Pip him in the lineup.

Ford caught 25 passes and averaged 18.8 yards per catch last year, his rookie season. That number could rise to 80, according to his new head coach Hue Jackson, the Raiders’ offensive coordinator in 2010.

Raiders head coach Hue Jackson said Jacoby Ford could catch 80 balls in 2011. (Credit: orangeandwhite.com)

Opposite Ford is the real question. Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall picks in the NFL Draft in 2009, is penciled in as the starter, despite racking up 35 catches, two touchdowns and less than 500 yards in his first two seasons.

If Heyward-Bey does not impress in the opener, it could be Murphy or Moore taking his spot. Moore, the highly touted rookie, was the team’s leading receiver this preseason, and Jackson wants to find ways to get him the ball.

Is it finally the time for these young quarterbacks to take the next step?

There were two popular strategies enacted during fantasy drafts this summer – go big on your quarterback or grab one late/cheap. This is where we find out who was right.

In this discussion: Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb.

Stafford was probably the trendiest pick to break out in 2011, of course being healthy the biggest obstacle thus far in his career. The Lions quarterback has played in 13 games over the course of his first two seasons, throwing 19 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.

But paired with arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL, Calvin Johnson, experts agree Stafford could explode in this pass-heavy Lions offense. (Last season the Lions ranked third in pass attempts). With Johnson, rookie Titus Young and Jahvid Best around him, Stafford is projected to have a big year.

As is Ryan, who, this offseason got a gift in the form of Julio Jones, among the top-rated wideouts in the 2011 draft. Jones, paired with Roddy White, immediately forms one of the most talented tandems in the league.

Ryan’s pass attempts and touchdowns have both risen in each of his three seasons, and with the expected decline of Michael Turner there could definitely be a greater reliance in the Falcons’ aerial attack. Last year Ryan tossed 28 touchdown passes; he could reach the elite 30-35 touchdown range this year.

With the addition of Julio Jones, the Falcons upgraded their passing attack. Is it time for Matt Ryan to enter the elite class of NFL quarterbacks? (credit: graphicshunt.com)

Bradford came in and started his NFL career with a splash, barely missing a beat after sitting out his senior season at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury. The Rams quarterback attempted nearly 600 passes, third most in the league behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and finishing with a stat line of more than 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns.

This offseason the Rams upgraded his receiving corps with rookie tight end Lance Kendricks, veteran receiver Mike Sims-Walker and offensive guru Josh McDanielscalling the shots.

McDaniels helped Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel earn starting quarterback duties in the league, not to mention that in 2007 was calling plays for Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots offense. Now he’ll have another talented player in Bradford to mold.

And of course there was the trade we all waited for – Kolb to the Cardinals. The former Eagles quarterback fell out of fortune in Philly, losing his job to Michael Vick, and now found a landing spot in the desert where he gets an elite receiver to throw to.

Kolb threw just one touchdown during the preseason, though it was an 80-yard bomb to Larry Fitzgerald. I’ll assume the chemistry is there and will develop further throughout the season.

During the past two years, we’ve seen glimpses of potential with Kolb as a gunslinger in this league, especially coming out of the pass-happy offense at Houston. In 2009, in spot duty, Kolb posted back-to-back 300-yard games against the Saints and Chiefs, with a combined four touchdown passes. A year later, he started the season as the Eagles quarterback, tossing seven touchdown passes in four games, not including the opener in which he left with an injury.

It’ll be interesting to see if Kolb develops into the quarterback many, including Andy Reid, thought would be.