Fantasy: What to look for tomorrow

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What to Watch For

There are some things we’ll never be able to figure out, especially after Week 1, Bill Belichick. But fantasy-wise, we can get a gage on the situation in primary ball carriers and most-targeted receivers.

Here’s a look at what to look for tomorrow:

Reggie Bush is the Miami Dolphins’ starting running back. For the first time in his career, the former Heisman Trophy winner will be the featured back, receiving the bulk of carries in the Wildcat formation.

Bush has also played second fiddle to either Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas, and has not received much praise because his electric playmaking ability did not exactly translate from USC to the pros.

For the first time in his career, Reggie Bush is expected to be a featured back. (Credit: Miami Herald)

From 2006 to the 2008, though, Bush’s yards-per-attempt average did rise, and in injury-shortened seasons in 2009 and 2010 he averaged 5.6 and 4.2 yards per rush, respectively.

There is, however, a power back listed second on the depth chart. Former Kansas State star, Daniel Thomas, could be the Dolphins’ short-yardage and goal line back, though reports from the preseason have not been too encouraging for the rookie.

And then there’s Lex Hilliard, another bruiser who could earn carries. Entering his third season with Miami, Hilliard will have an opportunity to impress the coaching staff with Thomas listed as questionable for Monday night’s match-up against New England.

Don’t trust that Bush can be the every-down back, but Miami did begin the Wildcat trend in the National Football League. They traded for Bush and put their faith in him for a reason.

What is the deal with the Raiders’ wide receiving corps? According to their depth chart, Jacoby Ford andDarrius Heyward-Bey will start, but this is Oakland we’re talking about it. The R-R-Raiders.

Louis Murphy, currently recovering from sports hernia surgery last month, most likely will not be available until Week 3. Zach Miller has been the team’s leading receiver, but among wideouts Murphy has been the leader in receptions and yardage for two straight seasons.

With Murphy out, it’s a chance for Ford, Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore to Wally Pip him in the lineup.

Ford caught 25 passes and averaged 18.8 yards per catch last year, his rookie season. That number could rise to 80, according to his new head coach Hue Jackson, the Raiders’ offensive coordinator in 2010.

Raiders head coach Hue Jackson said Jacoby Ford could catch 80 balls in 2011. (Credit: orangeandwhite.com)

Opposite Ford is the real question. Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall picks in the NFL Draft in 2009, is penciled in as the starter, despite racking up 35 catches, two touchdowns and less than 500 yards in his first two seasons.

If Heyward-Bey does not impress in the opener, it could be Murphy or Moore taking his spot. Moore, the highly touted rookie, was the team’s leading receiver this preseason, and Jackson wants to find ways to get him the ball.

Is it finally the time for these young quarterbacks to take the next step?

There were two popular strategies enacted during fantasy drafts this summer – go big on your quarterback or grab one late/cheap. This is where we find out who was right.

In this discussion: Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb.

Stafford was probably the trendiest pick to break out in 2011, of course being healthy the biggest obstacle thus far in his career. The Lions quarterback has played in 13 games over the course of his first two seasons, throwing 19 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.

But paired with arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL, Calvin Johnson, experts agree Stafford could explode in this pass-heavy Lions offense. (Last season the Lions ranked third in pass attempts). With Johnson, rookie Titus Young and Jahvid Best around him, Stafford is projected to have a big year.

As is Ryan, who, this offseason got a gift in the form of Julio Jones, among the top-rated wideouts in the 2011 draft. Jones, paired with Roddy White, immediately forms one of the most talented tandems in the league.

Ryan’s pass attempts and touchdowns have both risen in each of his three seasons, and with the expected decline of Michael Turner there could definitely be a greater reliance in the Falcons’ aerial attack. Last year Ryan tossed 28 touchdown passes; he could reach the elite 30-35 touchdown range this year.

With the addition of Julio Jones, the Falcons upgraded their passing attack. Is it time for Matt Ryan to enter the elite class of NFL quarterbacks? (credit: graphicshunt.com)

Bradford came in and started his NFL career with a splash, barely missing a beat after sitting out his senior season at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury. The Rams quarterback attempted nearly 600 passes, third most in the league behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and finishing with a stat line of more than 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns.

This offseason the Rams upgraded his receiving corps with rookie tight end Lance Kendricks, veteran receiver Mike Sims-Walker and offensive guru Josh McDanielscalling the shots.

McDaniels helped Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel earn starting quarterback duties in the league, not to mention that in 2007 was calling plays for Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots offense. Now he’ll have another talented player in Bradford to mold.

And of course there was the trade we all waited for – Kolb to the Cardinals. The former Eagles quarterback fell out of fortune in Philly, losing his job to Michael Vick, and now found a landing spot in the desert where he gets an elite receiver to throw to.

Kolb threw just one touchdown during the preseason, though it was an 80-yard bomb to Larry Fitzgerald. I’ll assume the chemistry is there and will develop further throughout the season.

During the past two years, we’ve seen glimpses of potential with Kolb as a gunslinger in this league, especially coming out of the pass-happy offense at Houston. In 2009, in spot duty, Kolb posted back-to-back 300-yard games against the Saints and Chiefs, with a combined four touchdown passes. A year later, he started the season as the Eagles quarterback, tossing seven touchdown passes in four games, not including the opener in which he left with an injury.

It’ll be interesting to see if Kolb develops into the quarterback many, including Andy Reid, thought would be.

Fantasy Preview: NFC South

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One of the most competitive divisions in all the National Football League and one the deepest in fantasy talent, the AFC South saw its fantasy pool grow through the draft this past April. With many young superstars, let’s examine which should be targeted at your fantasy draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One of our favor waiver wire selections last year was LeGarrette Blount, who down the stretch of the season posted RB1-type numbers. From Week 7 on, Blount rushed for 977 yards (88.8 per game) and five touchdowns. In contrast, that was more than 10 of the top 12 rushers – Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis, Ray Rice, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson andMichael Turner. Only Jamaal Charles and the league’s leading rusher Arian Foster rushed for more yards during that span.

Over a full 16-game schedule, Blount projects to more than 1,400 yards and between 10 to 12 total touchdowns, which is most rankings would earn top-tier RB1 numbers. And with the loss of Cadillac Williams to the St. Louis Rams, Blount is in store to get more opportunities to make an impact in the Bucs’ passing game, too.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers' LeGarrette Blount rushed for 977 yards from Week 7 on, more than 10 of the 12 leading rushers in 2010.

Blount, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, is being drafted towards the end of the third round, behind backs like Jackson and Turner and Jones-Drew, who are riddled with question marks heading into 2011. The third round is a steal for Blount; he’s easily a second-round talent.

The other Buc not receiving his due credit is Mike Williams, the talented second-year wide receiver who has far and away distinguished himself asJosh Freeman’s go-to guy. In his rookie season, Williams caught 11 touchdown passes – and did so in a consistent fashion. His longest touchdown drought was two weeks.

Williams ranked 13^th in targets in 2010, tied with the likes of Hakeem Nicks, ahead of WR1s like Greg Jennings, Miles Austin and Mike Wallace, all of whom are being drafted ahead of Williams. Like Blount, he’s being overlooked and underrated; draft with confidence.

Atlanta Falcons

Once touted as one of the up-and-coming quarterbacks in the league, now Matt Ryan is being considered one of the up-and-coming fantasy quarters in the league.

Last year, Ryan attempted and completed more passes, throwing for a career-high 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns, only being picked off nine times. As we know, there’s two different schools of thought when it comes to drafting quarterbacks: draft an elite quarterback early (or devote a lot of money in your auction budget), or stockpile talent positions and get your quarterback late. Ryan is the type of quarterback you can gamble on later and expect results.

Ryan is being drafted ninth among quarterbacks in 10-team leagues. He not only has an elite wide receiver inRoddy White, a Hall of Fame-bound tight end in Tony Gonzalez and perennial Pro Bowl running back Michael Turner, but the team traded up in the draft to snare Julio Jones out of Alabama to buff up the receiving corps and add yet another weapon for the fourth-year signal-caller.

White and Jones already classify as one of the more formidable receiver tandems in the entire league. Coming out of four straight 1,000-plus-yard seasons, double-digit touchdown totals in the last two, White has distinguished himself as an elite talent, and he’s finally garnering the credit he deserves.

Jones, an impressive physical being, is already inserted into the starting lineup, and will be the reason whyteams can no longer double-team White. With Gonzalez commanding the attention of linebackers in the middle of the field, and White and Jones spread out wide, Ryan and the Falcons’ passing game should thrive in 2011.

Of course, with Jones being the recipient of more passes, White owners should expect a dip in his product, mainly in PPR leagues. Still, though, White is an elite receiver, and Jones should be a safe WR3. Gonzalez, being drafted eighth among tight ends in 10-team leagues, should be a safe TE1.

Quick Hit: Despite a 1,371-yard, 12-touchdown campaign in 2010, Turner is a back expected to start declining this season. Of course, a small dip in those numbers would still be wonderful for owners. However, Turner is in his eighth season in the league, and he’s ran the ball more than 330 times in two of the past three years, after missing five games due to injury in 2009.

Turner has the potential to be a touchdown machine, but eventually the heavy workload has to catch up with him. We already saw third-down back Jason Snelling begin to steal carries from Turner, which could help Turner stay on the field for first- and second-down, but it does cut into his production.

Carolina Panthers

Before you can ask, the answer is no; do not expect Cam Newton to be a fantasy sleeper. If you don’t believe, seewhat I wrote back in the spring.

However, with a rookie quarterback behind center, or Jimmy Clausen for that matter, a heavy running attack is to be relied on. But due to the Panthers resigning DeAngelo Williams, an already cluttered backfield just got a lot more confusing. Ugh.

Addressing the best wide receiver corps the Panthers have had in years, surprisingly, expect Steve Smith to have yet another wasted season. Newton has a big arm, but we’ve yet to see him air it out to Smith to burn opposing defenses, especially within a division with some talented defensive backs.

Smith has been on the decline since 2008, when he lost Jake Delhomme and began the quarterback carousel ofMatt Moore and Clausen. Smith barely put up WR4 numbers last season, but with Delhomme he managed to finish WR2-worthy. The Panthers’ third preseason game should help forecast the chemistry between Newton and Smith.

One option to surprise, however, is tight end Greg Olsen, who the Panthers traded for from the Chicago Bears. The talented pass-catcher fell out of favor in Mike Martz’s offense, and could benefit from a rookie quarterback. Olsen, currently the 17^th tight end being taken, could easily emerge as Newton’s safety valve, and perhaps his main target. Draft as a back-up; he could surprise.

New Orleans Saints

Frequently being heralded as the offseason victors, the Saints added one key component on the offensive side of the ball that turned heads. I am, of course, talking about drafting Mark Ingram this past April.

Are we making too much of a big deal about it, though?

Ingram currently sits second atop the depth chart behind incumbent Pierre Thomas, while the team also addedDarren Sproles to fulfill the third-down back role. Considered the candidate to receive goal-line carries, Ingram is perhaps a bit overrated.

He’s still not the team’s featured back; the best-case scenario that he and Thomas split carries evenly this season. Nonetheless, Ingram is being drafted in the fifth around, ahead of Thomas.

There is, however, a good chance Thomas gets hurt this year. Thomas has yet to play in all 16 games in his career, and missed eight games due to an ankle injury that required surgery last year.

When healthy, Thomas is a threat near the goal line, where in 2008, as the featured back, scored seven touchdowns between the opponents’ 19- and one-yard line. That is, of course, expected to be Ingram’s role this season. We’ll have to see what head coach Sean Peyton decides to do – but for now, consider Ingram only in touchdown-heavy leagues.

The Saints’ biggest concern should be their wideouts. Their No. 1 receiver, Marques Colston, is coming off yet another knee surgery, and experience irritation and swelling earlier this month. The surgery was Colston’s fifth in five career seasons, so there’s a question of whether he’ll be able to maintain health over the course of the season.

Colston, to his credit, was a clear-cut WR1 down the stretch of the 2011 season, though. From Week 7 to Week 16, (he did not play Week 17), he caught 54 passes (5.4 per game) for 683 yards and seven touchdowns, right when fantasy owners were selling him after a painfully slow start.

So it is tough to write Colston off, because when healthy, he and Drew Brees are among the top duos in the NFL. If he’s injured to start the season, do not expect the No. 2 wide receiver, Devery Henderson, to take his place.

Henderson is not even considered a lock to make the Saints’ roster this year, and instead its slot receiver extraordinaire Lance Moore turning heads. Moore, fresh off a five-year deal signed in the offseason, scored a team-high eight touchdowns and was the second-most popular target. Currently the 47^th receiver taken, taken behind Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Michael Crabtree, Johnny Knox, Moore could be a late-round steal.

Quick Hit: Jimmy Graham, the Saints’ second-year tight end who caught five touchdowns last year, is considered a break-out candidate with the departure of Jeremy Shockey. While Graham could be in store for another five-touchdown campaign, the addition of Ingram convinces me Brees will look less to pass by the goal line, where Graham caught all of his touchdowns. However, Graham’s usually the seventh tight end off the board. If you’re not planning to spend big or invest in a tight end early, he’s not the worst option to settle for in touchdown-heavy leagues.