Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 3

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There’s a lot to look forward to Week 3 in the National Football League. Still early in the season, fantasy owners have yet to see whether their draft strategy has been a success of failure (unless you drafted Tom Brady).

It’s also easy to fall in love with your waiver wire wonders early on. But you have to remember to be patient with your stars, and don’t make irrational starts that’ll have the Monday Night Countdown crew saying, “C’mon man!”

Start ‘Em

The last time the Bears and Packers met, it was the NFC Championship game and Jay Cutler had a sour puss tattooed on his face. After an offseason of criticism and a mediocre effort against the Saints last week, Cutler is poised for a strong game.

The Bears' Jay Cutler last faced the Packers in the NFC Championship game, when he sat out the second half due to injury. (Credit: beargoggleson.com)

Green Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 800 yards, (Drew Brees: 419 yards; Cam Newton: 432 yards). With safety Nick Collins set to miss the remainder of the season, the depleted Packers secondary faces a motivated Cutler, atSoldier Field, in a rivalry game. Bet on Cutler.

Looking back at all of the offseason moves, theKevin Kolb trade, thus far, has proven to be a success. In two starts, Kolb has thrown for 560 yards and four touchdowns — I don’t think anybody is missing Max Hall or John Skelton in the desert now.

It’ll be a tougher test on the road in Seattle, though, facing a Seahawks defense that is holding opposing offenses to just about 100 yards per game. If the Cards can’t establish a running game with Beanie Wells, they’ll rely on Kolb to get on the board. It’s not even fair how Larry Fitzgerald stacks up the Seahawks’ defensive backs. Look smart; start Kolb.

In the mold of a Jerome Bettis or a Stephen Davis, Mike Tolbert is the Chargers’  bowling ball of a running back, and this week he’ll look more like he did Week 1 against the Vikings.

The Kansas City Chiefs, off to a profound 0-2 start, are on the road, facing a Chargers team that just suffered a disappointing loss against New England. The Chiefs are allowing multifaceted backs to run all over them.

Fred Jackson torched ‘em for 112 yards in Week 1, while Darren McFadden rewarded his fantasy owners with 143 total yards and two touchdowns, one on the ground and one via the air. After Philip Rivers leads the Chargers to a two-touchdown lead, expect Tolbert to seal the deal.

So it’s been the Cam Newton show so far, but this week the Panthers are actually favored against the Jags. Newton has tossed a shocking 854 yards, but in an offense in which he’s averaging 40 attempts per game.

Against the Jags, who are starting fellow first-round draft pick Blaine Gabbert, picked 10 picks after Cam, the Panthers should take an early lead as Gabbert struggles to move the chains.

This might be the welcome back party for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The dynamic duo has a combined 30 rushing attempts in two games. Look for Ron Rivera to remember he’s got $43 million man in his backfield.

The Ravens were embarrassed Week 2 in Nashville, allowing Kenny Britt to have his way with the secondary en route to 135 yards and a score. You would think John Harbaugh would have his defense ready to make amends for that horrid effort against the winless Rams this week…don’t count on it.

Brandon Gibson is one of three Rams receivers who could be poised to beat up on the Ravens' secondary. (Credit: sportschannelnews.com)

The Rams, desperate for their first “W” and playing in front of the home crowd, are going to attack the Baltimore secondary. The Ravens’ defensive front will shut down whoever lines up in the Rams’ backfield — if it’s Steven Jackson there’s a glimpse of hope; otherwise don’t bother starting his back-up (Cadillac Williams or Jerious Norwood).

Whatever offense the Rams muster up, it’ll be through the air. Look for Brandon Gibson to make his first stamp in the fantasy football world. But if you own Danario Alexander, who was the most-targeted Rams wideout last week, or Mike Sims-Walker, the most proven of the bunch, don’t be afraid to make them your WR3 or flex.

Sit ‘Em

This seems peculiar, but I’m advising you to bench Shonn Greene against the Oakland Raiders, the NFL’s sixth-worst run defense.

Greene, always a candidate to break out as an elite running back, is averaging just 13 carries in the first two games. Despite the lackluster workload, he’s barely getting three yards per attempt.

The Jets are relying on Mark Sanchez to pass them to victories. Well, it has been working, but travelling to the West Coast to face a talented defensive front seven — not exactly the right formula for Greene to have a big day.

Expect Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller to have a greater impact than Greene will on Sunday. In the Raiders’ home opener, they’re not letting Gang Green run all over them.

Jamaal Charles had the chance to be the No. 1 fantasy back in 2011. A torn ACL later, teams that put their faith in Charles to be their star are scurrying for his replacement. My advice: don’t look the other Chiefs.

Head coach Todd Haley is looking to go with a running back-by-committee approach, meaning Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster and even Le’Ron McClain are candidates for touches.

To be fair to Jones, he looks like he can be still compete in the league. He’s as ripped up as Rambo, but he can’t carry the rock…at all. McCluster, more a slot-receiver and Wildcat quarterback, will only receive a handful of touches in the backfield; he doesn’t have the ability to be a featured back. And there’s no sign that McClain is going to move from the fullback position.

If you’re looking to replace Charles on your roster, check the waiver wire for other solutions. Like Charles’ season, the Chiefs are done. Their offense is going to be putrid; I’d sell all of the Chiefs if I could.

Denarius Moore torched the Bills for 146 yards Week 2, but now he's bound for a trip to Revis Island.

benching Denarius Moore. Sure he torched the Bills for 146 yards last week, and Hue Jackson said he’s going to get the talented wideout more involved in the offense. But this week, he gets the Revis

So he was my pick for breakout rookie, but this week I’m 

Island treatment.

Darrelle Revis is going to shadow the Raiders’ most potent wideout like white on rice. Sure, he’s third on the depth chart. But Jacoby Ford has yet to practice this week and he’s questionable to even see the field. Darrius Heyward-Bey is available; tell me the last time he made an impact.

The Raiders’ passing game is going to be stifled by Revis and the Jets secondary. McFadden is the only Raider worth starting Week 3.

Originally posted on; 

http://thecovertwo.com/2011/09/start-em-sit-em-week-3/

Fantasy: What to look for tomorrow

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What to Watch For

There are some things we’ll never be able to figure out, especially after Week 1, Bill Belichick. But fantasy-wise, we can get a gage on the situation in primary ball carriers and most-targeted receivers.

Here’s a look at what to look for tomorrow:

Reggie Bush is the Miami Dolphins’ starting running back. For the first time in his career, the former Heisman Trophy winner will be the featured back, receiving the bulk of carries in the Wildcat formation.

Bush has also played second fiddle to either Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas, and has not received much praise because his electric playmaking ability did not exactly translate from USC to the pros.

For the first time in his career, Reggie Bush is expected to be a featured back. (Credit: Miami Herald)

From 2006 to the 2008, though, Bush’s yards-per-attempt average did rise, and in injury-shortened seasons in 2009 and 2010 he averaged 5.6 and 4.2 yards per rush, respectively.

There is, however, a power back listed second on the depth chart. Former Kansas State star, Daniel Thomas, could be the Dolphins’ short-yardage and goal line back, though reports from the preseason have not been too encouraging for the rookie.

And then there’s Lex Hilliard, another bruiser who could earn carries. Entering his third season with Miami, Hilliard will have an opportunity to impress the coaching staff with Thomas listed as questionable for Monday night’s match-up against New England.

Don’t trust that Bush can be the every-down back, but Miami did begin the Wildcat trend in the National Football League. They traded for Bush and put their faith in him for a reason.

What is the deal with the Raiders’ wide receiving corps? According to their depth chart, Jacoby Ford andDarrius Heyward-Bey will start, but this is Oakland we’re talking about it. The R-R-Raiders.

Louis Murphy, currently recovering from sports hernia surgery last month, most likely will not be available until Week 3. Zach Miller has been the team’s leading receiver, but among wideouts Murphy has been the leader in receptions and yardage for two straight seasons.

With Murphy out, it’s a chance for Ford, Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore to Wally Pip him in the lineup.

Ford caught 25 passes and averaged 18.8 yards per catch last year, his rookie season. That number could rise to 80, according to his new head coach Hue Jackson, the Raiders’ offensive coordinator in 2010.

Raiders head coach Hue Jackson said Jacoby Ford could catch 80 balls in 2011. (Credit: orangeandwhite.com)

Opposite Ford is the real question. Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall picks in the NFL Draft in 2009, is penciled in as the starter, despite racking up 35 catches, two touchdowns and less than 500 yards in his first two seasons.

If Heyward-Bey does not impress in the opener, it could be Murphy or Moore taking his spot. Moore, the highly touted rookie, was the team’s leading receiver this preseason, and Jackson wants to find ways to get him the ball.

Is it finally the time for these young quarterbacks to take the next step?

There were two popular strategies enacted during fantasy drafts this summer – go big on your quarterback or grab one late/cheap. This is where we find out who was right.

In this discussion: Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb.

Stafford was probably the trendiest pick to break out in 2011, of course being healthy the biggest obstacle thus far in his career. The Lions quarterback has played in 13 games over the course of his first two seasons, throwing 19 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.

But paired with arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL, Calvin Johnson, experts agree Stafford could explode in this pass-heavy Lions offense. (Last season the Lions ranked third in pass attempts). With Johnson, rookie Titus Young and Jahvid Best around him, Stafford is projected to have a big year.

As is Ryan, who, this offseason got a gift in the form of Julio Jones, among the top-rated wideouts in the 2011 draft. Jones, paired with Roddy White, immediately forms one of the most talented tandems in the league.

Ryan’s pass attempts and touchdowns have both risen in each of his three seasons, and with the expected decline of Michael Turner there could definitely be a greater reliance in the Falcons’ aerial attack. Last year Ryan tossed 28 touchdown passes; he could reach the elite 30-35 touchdown range this year.

With the addition of Julio Jones, the Falcons upgraded their passing attack. Is it time for Matt Ryan to enter the elite class of NFL quarterbacks? (credit: graphicshunt.com)

Bradford came in and started his NFL career with a splash, barely missing a beat after sitting out his senior season at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury. The Rams quarterback attempted nearly 600 passes, third most in the league behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and finishing with a stat line of more than 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns.

This offseason the Rams upgraded his receiving corps with rookie tight end Lance Kendricks, veteran receiver Mike Sims-Walker and offensive guru Josh McDanielscalling the shots.

McDaniels helped Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel earn starting quarterback duties in the league, not to mention that in 2007 was calling plays for Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots offense. Now he’ll have another talented player in Bradford to mold.

And of course there was the trade we all waited for – Kolb to the Cardinals. The former Eagles quarterback fell out of fortune in Philly, losing his job to Michael Vick, and now found a landing spot in the desert where he gets an elite receiver to throw to.

Kolb threw just one touchdown during the preseason, though it was an 80-yard bomb to Larry Fitzgerald. I’ll assume the chemistry is there and will develop further throughout the season.

During the past two years, we’ve seen glimpses of potential with Kolb as a gunslinger in this league, especially coming out of the pass-happy offense at Houston. In 2009, in spot duty, Kolb posted back-to-back 300-yard games against the Saints and Chiefs, with a combined four touchdown passes. A year later, he started the season as the Eagles quarterback, tossing seven touchdown passes in four games, not including the opener in which he left with an injury.

It’ll be interesting to see if Kolb develops into the quarterback many, including Andy Reid, thought would be.

Fantasy Preview: AFC North

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The AFC North is notorious for its defensive reputation. In 2011 that remains true. There are a few elite fantasy football stars in the division, though, and some middle to late-round sleepers you could snatch up later in your draft.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens dropped a load of dead weight this offseason, allowing receivers Derrick Mason, Donte Stallworthand T.J. Houshmandzadeh to leave, as well as longtime tight end Todd Heap and backs Willis MacGahee andLe’Ron McClain.

The loss of the veterans means an increased importance of the young players the organization has put their faith in. Joe Flacco will have a new cast of wideouts to throw to, including second- and fourth-rounders Torrey Smith(Maryland) and Tandon Doss (Indiana), and Lee Evans, who the team recently traded for from the Buffalo Bills.

Evans will get the nod opposite of Anquan Boldin, who should flourish as Flacco’s go-to guy in his second year in the system. Evans and Smith should command some attention from defensive backs with their deep-threat ability, and fit well with Flacco’s big arm. Doss, currently fourth on the depth chart, but his physical attributes may allow him to be a future dynasty pick.

Ray Rice enters the 2011 season in a contract year, playing behind a new fullback.

The Ravens added fullback Vonta Leachto the mix to pave holes for Ray Rice, who is entering a contract season. Rice is without a doubt the featured ball carrier this season; though Ricky Williams was brought as his back-up, he shouldn’t threaten Rice’s workload. The addition of Leach, considered one of the elite run-blocking fullbacks in the National Football League, puts Rice at the top of the second-tier running backs for 2011. Leach blocked for the Houston Texans’ Arian Foster last season.

The loss of Heap to the Arizona Cardinals was to make way for second-year tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta to enter the mix. Dickson will have the first shot to earn a starting gig, but Pitta impressed when Dickson missed time due to injury. Heap caught more than 50 passes for almost 600 yards and six touchdowns when healthy in 2009, and produced similar statistics last season despite missing time due to injury. It’s unlikely Dickson (or Pitta) will match those numbers immediately, but could be in store for three to four touchdowns as a TE2.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are a mess, period. Carson Palmer would at least give the team a glimpse of hope for fantasy relativity, but since Andy Dalton, the rookie out of TCU is currently getting first-team repetitions I would stray from drafting any Bengals in 2011.

Dalton has first-round selection A.J. Green to throw to, but it’s still a question whether he’ll be able to get the physically gifted wideout the ball. Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley’s values are also diminished.

The team managed to resign Cedric Benson, who’ll continue to steal carries for the more talented Bernard Scott. Benson’s best two seasons were with the Bengals the past two years, posting more than 1,000 yards and at least six touchdowns. However, in 2010, Benson averaged a mere 69.4 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. He offers no pass-catching ability and lost five fumbles. He surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark only three times. Against division foes he’s managed 414 yards and two touchdowns – and that’s six times per year.

Scott, on the other hand, receives one-fifth the amount of carries Benson does, despite averaging nearly five yards per carry. Scott may not be able to carry the physical load like Benson, but should be featured as the clear change-of-pace back and given the ball in space more. Potential aside, Scott, along with the rest of the Bengals, should be avoided in drafts everywhere.

Cleveland Browns

Enshrined on the Madden ’12 cover, is Peyton Hillis in line for another 13 touchdown season with the Browns? Hillis averages between the top 12 to 20 running backs in 2011, projected to rush for just over 1,000 yards and find the end zone far fewer times.

The odds are stacked against Hillis’ chance of repeating his surprising 2010 season. He’s now joined byBrandon Jackson in a new offense, and Montario Hardesty is now healthy after missing all of 2010 due to injury. Hillis should receive a lighter workload, and his receiving numbers should drop due to Jackson’s third-down role.

Consider Hillis a RB2, with the chance of injury due to not only the supposed Madden curse but his rumbling, stumbling, bumbling running style that eventually will take a toll on his body.

Entering his second year in the pros, and first full year as the Browns’ starting quarterback, Colt McCoypossesses some fantasy relevance as a back-up. In eight games last year, McCoy threw for over 1,500 yards and six touchdowns, and ran another one in on the ground. In a full 16-game schedule, he projects to pass for around 3,000 yards, 12 touchdowns and perhaps a few more rushing scores.

McCoy can easily be overlooked because the odds are stacked against him as an NFL-level prospect. He does have a budding star in Mohamed Massaquoi at wide receiver, and as McCoy progresses Massaquoi gains more and more value. I’d take a flier on him in the later rounds because McCoy eventually will air it out to him.

The other receiver to keep an eye on is Brian Robiskie, not second-round selection Greg Little, who has yet to impress during training camp thus far. Robiskie improved from year one to year two, but like Massaquoi his ceiling is capped until McCoy proves he can be a capable passer.

The sleeper on the Browns this year is tight end Evan Moore, who despite being listed as No. 2 on the depth chart behind Ben Watson, has been touted as the best player in training camp this year. Moore had 16 receptions for 322 yards and a touchdown in a dozen games last season, but a 20-yard-per-catch average. The Browns use Moore split out wide like a slot receiver, and should see an increase in catches, possibly supplanting Watson in the lineup.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Perhaps the biggest steals of fantasy drafts in 2010 was Mike Wallace, who had seven 100-yard receiving games en route to a breakout campaign. Wallace had 10 touchdowns, and averaged an impressive 21 yards-per-catch and 80 yards-per-contest. Though he’s mostly in that DeSean Jackson mode as a big-play receiver, his electrifying speed is nearly unstoppable.

According to Rotoworld, Wallace was the only top-10 wide receiver not to finish in the top 15 of most-targeted. In other words, if Ben Roethlisberger looked Wallace’s way just a little bit more often, this guy could easily make his way into the top five come season’s end.

Wallace headlines a young receiving corps including Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Hines Ward is still the No. 2 wideout, and the team recently signed former Jet Jericho Cotchery. Brown is currently the slot receiver since Sanders underwent foot surgery this preseason, and it’s looking more and more likely Brown will get the nod ahead of him.

Neither Brown nor Sanders put together eye-opening campaigns last season, though their late-season impact is surely a forecast of their future roles on the team. It also spells the decline of Ward, now 35 and entering his 13th season in Pittsburgh. Ward caught 59 balls last year, the second lowest total of his career. He still found the end zone five times, which means he’s not completely irrelevant, but he’s a WR3 at best.

In the backfield, the often overlooked Rashard Mendenhall is entering his third year as the Steelers’ starter. He’s put together back-to-back 1,000-plus-yard seasons, increasing his touchdown total from eight to 13.

Mendenhall was a consistent RB1 all season long, scoring in 11 of 16 games, though he only surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark four times. He’s not going to impress in receiving numbers, averaging 24 catches the past two years, and Mewelde Moore taking third-down snaps. But Mendenhall is a dime in touchdown leagues, and is considered at the top of the second class of backs.

Also posted on: http://thecovertwo.com/2011/08/fantasy-preview-afc-north/

Top Five Reasons You Do Not Want to See an N.F.L. Lockout

Have you seen a lot of these Tweets today? The N.F.L. Lockout website has launched a campaign for all of its fans and players alike to sign a petition to stop the potential work stoppage. 

The N.F.L. superstars and Twitter aces haves taken to their laptops and iPhones to get the message across.

The effort is understandable, but is this the best way to exhibit the sense of urgency this problem really calls for? 

An N.F.L. lockout would be detrimental to society. Men everywhere would be clueless to how to spend their weekends. Sunday would become merely just another day of the week, simply the day before we all head back to work Monday.

In a purely gratuitous effort, I have shed some light on the situation. Here are the top five reasons why the N.F.L., specifically its fans across the globe, cannot suffice if there is no football next season.  

5. You will lose weight

Of course this sounds excellent to fatties everywhere. No Sunday, no beers, no planting yourself on the coach from noon 'til midnight and unfortunately no more artichoke dip. You could find yourself so bored to the extent that hitting the weights or the stair-master is a more plausible option.

watchmojo.com

This is not 'The Biggest Loser' -- there is no Jillian Michaels on your tail making sure you live to see another day.

Better said, this is you losing your manhood. Sundays are meant for beer and wings, not celery sticks and Vitamin Water -- just ask Yao Ming. 

Soon enough your Sunday workout will turn into a social occasion between you and your new gym buddies -- you know, the guy with those goggles and the always-handy towel, wearing a sweatband around their crown and more often than not those old school headphones. 

It really makes you appreciate your beer belly now, doesn't it?

4. You may realize you are not on God's good side


Without football, there is no purer way to spend a Sunday by reverting to your inner Sunday School student and returning to the house that God built. No I'm not talking about Soldier Field; I mean church, dude. 


Let me be a messenger from up above -- God sees all, and he is aware that you are going to church just because you have lost your top priority on Sunday. And plain and simple he will not approve.


You can't just trade touchdowns for The Old Testament, blitzes for The Bible, play action passes for prayer. 


3. You will  become a better spouse/boyfriend


Again, I am sure this sounds wonderful -- falling in favor with your loved one and perhaps reaping all the benefits that come along with that.


But let me remind you, it is far from as fantastic as it may sound.

Getty Images

Consider this: going on regular trips to Bed, Bath and Beyond; starting up a lovely tomato garden in the backyard and becoming her foremost source on how well she looks in her pants suit.  


You used to love to watch your fantasy team rack up the points and talk smack to your brethren about how you knew Arian Foster would be the sleeper of 2010, or that your relentless pursuit of Peyton Hillis on the waiver wire was something you had planned to do all along and that is why you won your league.


Now you talk about how quickly your seeds are sprouting. You can't help but brag about how wonderful it is to get a delish salad and fruit daiquiri at The Cheesecake Factory. Oh, and those trips to the gym -- yeah, now your new workout buddy has become your girl.


Enjoy pilates bro.


2. You will begin to love bowling


Maybe you won't turn down the wrong path of exercise or a girls' day on the town. Perhaps sticking with the tube will remain your top options.


But with no Fox or CBS or NBC at nighttime, you'll fall in love with the ESPN's Sunday afternoon special -- the PBA Tour.


Before long, you can boast to your friends that you are now the foremost expert in everything bowling -- The master of the lanes, the king of the pins, the sultan of strikes.


If you're comfortable with that then so be it. 


1. Your son will follow in your wife's footsteps


You are no Troy Aikman, no Peyton Manning, not even an Eli Manning for that matter. But when it comes to your son, your offspring, you expect to be the one who molds them to be the athlete in your favorite quarterback's image.

nflgridirongab.com

How many hours have you spent watching the throwing motion of Brett Favre mumbling to yourself, "Man, I could do that."


Without the N.F.L. though, your son doesn't know who Favre or Manning is. They see you watch the P.B.A. Tour or plant damn tomatoes on Sundays. For goodness sake, they are begging to accompany you to the mall.


What kind of role model have you become, you monster.


Your son thinks your garden is bad ass, and he's asking for a pair of bowling gloves for Christmas. 


Now tell me this: do you really want to see the National Football League disappear? 




samspiegs@aol.com
Twitter: @samspiegs