Fantasy: What to look for tomorrow

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What to Watch For

There are some things we’ll never be able to figure out, especially after Week 1, Bill Belichick. But fantasy-wise, we can get a gage on the situation in primary ball carriers and most-targeted receivers.

Here’s a look at what to look for tomorrow:

Reggie Bush is the Miami Dolphins’ starting running back. For the first time in his career, the former Heisman Trophy winner will be the featured back, receiving the bulk of carries in the Wildcat formation.

Bush has also played second fiddle to either Deuce McAllister or Pierre Thomas, and has not received much praise because his electric playmaking ability did not exactly translate from USC to the pros.

For the first time in his career, Reggie Bush is expected to be a featured back. (Credit: Miami Herald)

From 2006 to the 2008, though, Bush’s yards-per-attempt average did rise, and in injury-shortened seasons in 2009 and 2010 he averaged 5.6 and 4.2 yards per rush, respectively.

There is, however, a power back listed second on the depth chart. Former Kansas State star, Daniel Thomas, could be the Dolphins’ short-yardage and goal line back, though reports from the preseason have not been too encouraging for the rookie.

And then there’s Lex Hilliard, another bruiser who could earn carries. Entering his third season with Miami, Hilliard will have an opportunity to impress the coaching staff with Thomas listed as questionable for Monday night’s match-up against New England.

Don’t trust that Bush can be the every-down back, but Miami did begin the Wildcat trend in the National Football League. They traded for Bush and put their faith in him for a reason.

What is the deal with the Raiders’ wide receiving corps? According to their depth chart, Jacoby Ford andDarrius Heyward-Bey will start, but this is Oakland we’re talking about it. The R-R-Raiders.

Louis Murphy, currently recovering from sports hernia surgery last month, most likely will not be available until Week 3. Zach Miller has been the team’s leading receiver, but among wideouts Murphy has been the leader in receptions and yardage for two straight seasons.

With Murphy out, it’s a chance for Ford, Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore to Wally Pip him in the lineup.

Ford caught 25 passes and averaged 18.8 yards per catch last year, his rookie season. That number could rise to 80, according to his new head coach Hue Jackson, the Raiders’ offensive coordinator in 2010.

Raiders head coach Hue Jackson said Jacoby Ford could catch 80 balls in 2011. (Credit: orangeandwhite.com)

Opposite Ford is the real question. Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall picks in the NFL Draft in 2009, is penciled in as the starter, despite racking up 35 catches, two touchdowns and less than 500 yards in his first two seasons.

If Heyward-Bey does not impress in the opener, it could be Murphy or Moore taking his spot. Moore, the highly touted rookie, was the team’s leading receiver this preseason, and Jackson wants to find ways to get him the ball.

Is it finally the time for these young quarterbacks to take the next step?

There were two popular strategies enacted during fantasy drafts this summer – go big on your quarterback or grab one late/cheap. This is where we find out who was right.

In this discussion: Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb.

Stafford was probably the trendiest pick to break out in 2011, of course being healthy the biggest obstacle thus far in his career. The Lions quarterback has played in 13 games over the course of his first two seasons, throwing 19 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions.

But paired with arguably the most talented wide receiver in the NFL, Calvin Johnson, experts agree Stafford could explode in this pass-heavy Lions offense. (Last season the Lions ranked third in pass attempts). With Johnson, rookie Titus Young and Jahvid Best around him, Stafford is projected to have a big year.

As is Ryan, who, this offseason got a gift in the form of Julio Jones, among the top-rated wideouts in the 2011 draft. Jones, paired with Roddy White, immediately forms one of the most talented tandems in the league.

Ryan’s pass attempts and touchdowns have both risen in each of his three seasons, and with the expected decline of Michael Turner there could definitely be a greater reliance in the Falcons’ aerial attack. Last year Ryan tossed 28 touchdown passes; he could reach the elite 30-35 touchdown range this year.

With the addition of Julio Jones, the Falcons upgraded their passing attack. Is it time for Matt Ryan to enter the elite class of NFL quarterbacks? (credit: graphicshunt.com)

Bradford came in and started his NFL career with a splash, barely missing a beat after sitting out his senior season at Oklahoma with a shoulder injury. The Rams quarterback attempted nearly 600 passes, third most in the league behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, and finishing with a stat line of more than 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns.

This offseason the Rams upgraded his receiving corps with rookie tight end Lance Kendricks, veteran receiver Mike Sims-Walker and offensive guru Josh McDanielscalling the shots.

McDaniels helped Kyle Orton and Matt Cassel earn starting quarterback duties in the league, not to mention that in 2007 was calling plays for Tom Brady and the record-setting Patriots offense. Now he’ll have another talented player in Bradford to mold.

And of course there was the trade we all waited for – Kolb to the Cardinals. The former Eagles quarterback fell out of fortune in Philly, losing his job to Michael Vick, and now found a landing spot in the desert where he gets an elite receiver to throw to.

Kolb threw just one touchdown during the preseason, though it was an 80-yard bomb to Larry Fitzgerald. I’ll assume the chemistry is there and will develop further throughout the season.

During the past two years, we’ve seen glimpses of potential with Kolb as a gunslinger in this league, especially coming out of the pass-happy offense at Houston. In 2009, in spot duty, Kolb posted back-to-back 300-yard games against the Saints and Chiefs, with a combined four touchdown passes. A year later, he started the season as the Eagles quarterback, tossing seven touchdown passes in four games, not including the opener in which he left with an injury.

It’ll be interesting to see if Kolb develops into the quarterback many, including Andy Reid, thought would be.

Fantasy Preview: NFC North

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The NFC North is one of the deceptively talent-loaded divisions, with teams that used to be famous for their rough-and-tough defenses now flaunting their star power on offense. Here’s a preview of the fantasy talent team by team.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler is like the rock band you used to jam with in high school – sure there are glimpses of hope but are you ever really going to reach your potential? In his second season in Chicago he did cut down on the number of interceptions, but there was also a decrease in passes attempted, yardages and touchdowns.

Heading into his second year in Mike Martz’s offense, he should feel more comfortable with the ins and outs of the system – not to mention he’s getting a boost in his receiving corps. Roy Williams, who enjoyed a career-best season under Martz in Detroit, comes over from the Cowboys. In 2006, Williams posted 82 receptions for 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns, earning Pro Bowl honors and finishing among the top 10 fantasy wideouts.

Williams is already the most talented receiver on the Bears, and automatically will become Cutler’s top target overDevin Hester. Martz predicts Williams will haul in between 70 and 80 catches in 2011, which he hasn’t done since that 2006-07 season with the Lions. The combination of Cutler’s arm strength with the ability William displayed prior to joining the Cowboys would likely make him a WR1. However, there’s a reason to be skeptical – so while he may have WR1 potential, draft as a WR2 with high upside.

Williams wasn’t the only Cowboy to make his way to the Windy City. Marion Barber joined the Bears after falling out of favor in Big D under head coach Jason Garrett, and registering just 374 yards all of last season. In Chicago, Barber is expected to receive goal line carries, an area where the Bears struggled with in 2011.

The Bears ranked 24^th in the National Football League, as the team struggled to figure out whether Matt Forte orChester Taylor was the right guy to pound it in. The addition of Barber answers that question, and should also reduce the number of pass attempts by Cutler there – an area where he tends to force the ball – thereby cutting his interception total, too.

In touchdown-heavy leagues, consider Barber a late-round steal if he’s around; though don’t expect him to put up huge yardage totals. Forte, in the midst of negotiating a contract extension, should continue to receive the bulk of the carries, as well as a threat out of the backfield to catch 50 to 60 passes for a handful of touchdowns.

Detroit Lions

It’s almost cliché to say this now, but if the Lions’ Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for a full season then the team may not only be a playoff-caliber team, but a fantasy haven.

The Lions' Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson could be one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL in 2011.

Unable to play a full 16-game schedule in his first two years in the leagues, Stafford is always a risk to draft. But, like other injury-prone quarterbacks (i.e.Michael Vick) loaded with talent, there’s a high upside. The Lions attempted the third most passes in the NFL last season (633), with a combination of Stafford (for three games), Shaun Hilland Drew Stanton. The three combined for 3,810 yards and 26 touchdowns, which should resemble Stafford’s 2011 projections over 16 games.

No matter who the quarterback is, though, it’ll Calvin Johnson they’re targeting most of the time. Megatron, entering his fifth year with the Lions, is coming off a 1,100-yard, 12-touchdown campaign where he didn’t know who his quarterback was each week.

Consider this: in 2009, when Stafford started 10 games for the Lions in his rookie season, the quarterback-receiver tandem combined for 728 yards and four touchdowns. Together, their chemistry and talent ceiling could be among the best in the league in 2011.

Another one of Stafford’s receiving threats is Jahvid Best, the second-year back who turned heads during the first few weeks last season before suffering a turf toe injury. The Lions drafted bruiser Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois to complement Best, but the rookie was injured during training camp and will miss the remainder of the season. Best’s draft stock, of course, was lifted due to the injury. Here’s what you can expect.

Green Bay Packers

In Titletown, the Pack is gearing up for another Super Bowl run, and another chance to be the most electrifying offense in the entire league.

Headlined by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the talent on Green Bay’s offense is the type of players you want to target in your drafts, according to the age-old mantra of getting players on highly productive offenses. But you don’t need me to lecture you on Rodgers, who, aside from Vick could be the No. 1 fantasy player in 2011.

Ryan Grant returns to the Packers after missing 2010 due to injury. A motivated, hungry Grant immediately regains his starting role, over sophomore James Starks, and is a solid RB2 that you can snag in the later rounds.

In 2008 and 2009, Grant rushed for over 1,200 yards, and in his first three seasons scored 24 total touchdowns. Green  Bay notoriously runs a pass-first offense, but as we saw in the playoffs, they use the pass to establish the rushing attack. Grant should put together another 1,000-yard season and find the end zone at least eight or so times.

In the receiving corps, expect Donald Driver to lose another step, allowing the recently resigned James Jonesstart as the flanker opposite Greg Jennings. Jones should see an increase in receptions and touchdowns given his new role, though be cautious when dealing with an offense with so many receivers.

Jennings is probably the only safe WR1 among these receivers — Jones, Jordy Nelson are safer bets as WR3.Rookie Randall Cobb, the rookie out of Kentucky, likely won’t supplant Nelson as the team’s third wideout this year, but he has been “a natural” there in the preseason thus far.

Another popular debate is whether or not to draft Jermichael Finley, the talented but oft-injured tight end. Finley has without a doubt a huge upside and the potential to finish the season with Antonio Gates-like numbers. But he’s missed games in each of his first three seasons, which makes past and future owners a bit weary.

Finley swears he’ll be healthy and have a definite impact this season, which sounds great and all, but really can’t protect him from a linebacker crushing his knee Week 4. If you decide to get Finley, handcuff him with Andrew Quarless, his back-up who totaled 148 yards in the final six games of the season.

Minnesota Vikings

Out with old and in with the old — the Vikings replaced Brett Favre with Donovan McNabb this offseason, hoping to recapture the magic of the Vike’s offense from 2009 when they made a run to the NFC Championship game.

Many consider McNabb on his last legs, essentially his career over. But there’s an argument to be made that his 2010 season in Washington under Mike Shanahan was merely an aberration.

McNabb threw just 14 touchdowns, compared to 15 picks, last season, the first time his touchdown total was less than his interception total. In 2009, his last season with Philadelphia, McNabb thew from 22-10, one of his more productive seasons in his career.

With Minnesota, McNabb will unite with offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who utilizes the West Coast offenses that McNabb has been the focal point in 11 of his 12 NFL seasons.

Of course, at the age 34 going on 35, he may not be a lock for a 25-touchdown season, but he could be drafted as a solid back-up with surprising upside.

The problem is McNabb is dealing with a talentless wide receiver corps. Gone is Sidney Rice, and what’s left isMichael Jenkins. Of course Percy Harvin is still around, but the talented weapon is a migraine waiting to happen, and doesn’t have to skill-set to be a possession wide receiver.

Oh, there is Bernard Berrian, B-Twice to the ladies. Haven’t seen him in quite some time.

Perhaps the only safe player in Minnesota to draft is Adrian Peterson, who will benefit from McNabb’s presence because defenses won’t be able to load up the box like they did against Joe Webb or would have if Christian Ponder was starting.

Peterson is a lock for double-digit touchdowns, and is the best running back in all formats. Peterson is likely to see an increase in his statistics as a pass-catcher in Musgrave’s scheme — not to mention he’s in a contract season. Draft with ease.