Tuesday, March 30, 2010

MLB Pre-Season Thoughts: AL East

Who doesn't love pre-season predictions? Let's take a look at each division and see what teams are expected to be contenders and what teams are going to trade away all their players at the trading deadline.

AL East (Yanks, Sawks, Rays, Jays and O's)

Without a doubt, any route to the World Series must once again go through the Bronx. You must always give respect to the World Series Champions, especially when they can add an all-star center fielder, Curtis Granderson, to the top of their lineup.
In addition, both CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett will start their second years in the new stadium, likely being more accustomed to the dimensions and propensity for home runs in right field.
My main doubts come from replacing Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Melky Cabrera with Nick Johnson and the decision to start Brett Gardener. Damon and Matsui are sure veterans and you know what to expect from them every season. Cabrera is a chemistry-building player who is great in the clubhouse and brought a spark to the team when they needed it the most.
Nick Johnson, who puts up stellar numbers while healthy, is a huge question because he hasn't been able to stay healthy wherever he goes. Brett Gardner is a great weapon on any team because of his quickness and speed, but his hitting is a serious downgrade compared to Melky or Damon. The Yanks are going to look like a National League team with Gardner at the bottom of the lineup bunting -- in no way will they be able to produce offensively like they did last season.
The final question mark is the back end of the rotation. Despite an impressive season last year, Andy Pettitte is another year older, and there's no way to expect him to be as consistent as he was last year. Javier Vazquez, in his second stint with the Bombers, excelled in the National League, but has a tendency to get lit up when in the American League for both the Yanks and the White Sox. And Phil Hughes, who was such a key role player in the eighth inning during the second half of the season in 2009, is moving back to a starting role, where he has been pretty much so-so.

On the opposite side of the empire sits the Bah-stan Red Sawks who have transformed their team from a power-hitting club into one that preaches pitching and defense -- a strategy they saw work for their arch nemesis last season all the way to a championship. It started with their signings of John Lackey, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro, and the departure of Jason Bay.
The Sox are depending on the old, wily veteran Mike Cameron to replace Bay's offense. Yeah, that is not going to happen. Bay has been one of the top RBI producers in the league over the past few years, and Cameron is clearly on the decline.
The strength of the Sox is their ridiculously deep pitching staff, most notably their starting rotation given that they all stay healthy. Having potentially three aces in Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Lackey is such a tremendously intimidating match up for any opposing club who faces them in a three-game series. They will also have Dice-K, who is coming off an injury, Clay Buchholz, a pitcher desired all throughout the league for his mile-high potential and Tim Wakefield, the old knuckleballer who put together a terrific season in 2009 to fill out the rest of the rotation.


ESPN has recently cited the Tampa Bay Rays as the sleeper teams to win the division this year. Sleeper? They made it to the World Series two years ago. Please Aaron Boone.
What Tampa does have is an immense collection of talent up and down their lineup: Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria.
Evan Longoria #3 of the Tampa Bay Rays is congratulated by teammate Carl Crawford #13 after Longoria hit a solo home run against the Boston Red Sox in game five of the American League Championship Series during the 2008 MLB playoffs at Fenway Park on October 16, 2008 in Boston, Massachusetts.
But they also have question marks: What happened to B.J. Upton and Dionner Navarro? What can they expect from Rafael Soriano? How will Jeff Niemann do in his second season? What can young David Price and Wade Davis contribute? Not to mention, the year they went to the Series they had an all-but-perfect bullpen, but not so much last year.


Maybe because I always have a collection of Orioles on my fantasy team each year, but I always find myself fearing the O's as a team on the rise. With youthful insurgents like Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, along with savvy vets like Brian Roberts and Luke Scott -- it's hard to consider the O's a threat.
But what to consider with O's, as well as the Rays, is their pitching staff. Both the Sawks and Yanks have veteran pitchers throughout their staff who have already proven they are dynamic in the major league level -- the O's are depending on a lot of youth to lead them. Listen, if you have offense, great -- but so does most of the AL East -- for every Nick Markakis, there is a Carl Crawford or a Kevin Youkilis or an Alex Rodriguez.


This brings us to my sure pick for the sure bottom-feeders of the divisions: your Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays fell out of contention as soon as they sent Roy Halladay packing for a package of prospects that no one knows how will they pan out. What we do know, is that we can eliminate 20 or so wins from their season total leaving them . . . yeah.
Pitcher Roy Halladay (R) of the Philadelphia Phillies shakes hands with senior vice president and general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. after signing with the the team on December 16, 2009 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

There are always bring spots: Adam Lind and Aaron Hill -- both put up monstrous numbers last year on a dreadful club. But they lost Marco Scutaro, who fled for Sawks. They are expected to start a bunch of kids in their starting staff, including Shaun Marcum who is coming off a season-long injury; Brandon Morrow who is already on the DL.

There's just no way that the Jay's contend this year or the next, but their young pool of talent, including Ricky Romero, Lind and Hill, as well as the youth they've recently acquired for their farm system, maybe...


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