Fantasy Preview: AFC East

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Today marks the first of eight division previews in a series of my fantasy sleeper series. Beginning with the AFC East, we’ll examine possibly breakout candidates that you could target in the earlier, middle and later rounds of your fantasy football draft.

Tom Brady and Ochocinco should be a dynamic duo in 2011 for fantasy owners.

The AFC East is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will have trouble scoring again in 2011, after finishing 28^th and 30^th, respectively, a season ago.

The New York Jets, the 13^th-highest scoring offense in 2010, have regressed on the offensive side of the ball after losing Braylon Edwards, the team’s leading receiver, and Jericho Cotchery, a safety valve for Mark Sanchez.

Perhaps the team who led the National Football League in scoring last season will repeat, especially adding Chad Ochocinco to the receiving core. The New England Patriots’ rookie tight ends have a year in the system under their belt, and added two more weapons in the backfield in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in the 2011 draft.

Here’s a list of possible sleepers in the division:

Buffalo Bills

Though he’s not a top-tier quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick put together a 3,000-yard campaign last season, despite a lack of talent surrounding him. Fitzpatrick started 13 games, the most in a season of his career, likely projecting for more than 3,500 if given a full 16-game season.

Fitzpatrick lost Lee Evans, who for many years led the Bills in receiving yardage. Instead, he found Speedy Stevie Johnson, who compiled 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns with Fitzpatrick behind center. Johnson is the clear-cut starting wideout in Buffalo, with a WR2 ceiling as long as Fitzpatrick stays health. It’s not like Tyler Thigpen is pushing him for his job.

There’s also been talk of Donald Jones replacing Evans’ production as the starting flanker opposite Johnson. It appears as if David Nelson, though, is a superior option out of the slot, considering there’s no true receiving threat from the tight end position. Nelson, according to Pro Football Focus, led all wide receivers with 94.35 percent of his snaps from the slot last year. Jones caught more than 58 percent of his passes over the middle and on plays short of 10 yards, giving him more value in PPR leagues.

In the backfield, Fred Jackson is once again going to be the team’s leading rusher, as C.J. Spiller will prove yet again he did not warrant the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 draft. Spiller didn’t surpass 300 yards rushing in his rookie season, nor did he impress much as a receiver out of the backfield. He scored two touchdowns, one on a kickoff return. Head coach Chan Gailey has stated he wants to use Spiller in a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles type of role; but it’s yet to be seen whether Spiller has the talent of those two third-down backs.

Miami Dolphins

The fan don’t want Chad Henne to play quarterback; but head coach Tony Sparano doesn’t seem to really care…even if second-stringer Matt Moore outplayed him thus far in the preseason. Henne, considered a steal in the second round of the NFL Draft a few years back, has failed to impress in his first two seasons as the Fins’ starter.

Henne has improved each year – slightly – increasing his completion percentage, yardage total, touchdowns, as well as interceptions. He finished in the bottom third of fantasy quarterback rankings in 2010, despite the addition of Brandon Marshall to his receiving corps.

Understandably, Moore doesn’t even match up to Kyle Orton, who was nearly traded from the Denver Broncosearlier in the offseason. However, he hasn’t really received the credit he’s due as an NFL quarterback.

Dealing with inferior talent in Carolina, Moore, in five games started before missing the season due to injury, threw for 857 yards and five touchdowns while completing 55 percent of his passes. It doesn’t sound like much, but consider this: he played against the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams and New Orleans Saints – four teams whose defense ranked in the top half of the league’s best against the pass.

Overall, in 14 more career starts, Henne has a 27-33 TD-INT ratio. Moore: 16-17. Tell me why Henne is that much better.

Among the Dolphins’ skill players, the team traded in the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams for Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, the second-round bruiser out of Kansas State. Currently Bush is penciled in as the starter, but we’ve seen in New Orleans that Bush doesn’t have the capabilities to be an every-down back. It’s just a matter of time before Thomas starts stealing Bush’s carries, and Bush assumes third-down responsibilities.

Despite an offseason stabbing, Marshall is above and beyond the best receiving threat on the Dolphins. Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are No. 2 and 3, respectively, with Bess’ sure hands out of the slot a sure option to finish second on the team in receptions, a solid performer in PPR leagues. Aside from the top three, it’s a crop of unproven receivers, none of which seem to have fantasy value. Anthony Fasano, who is tied with Bess for the most touchdown receptions with Henne quarterbacking, barely warrants a TE3 ranking.

New York Jets

Losing Edwards and Cotchery and signing Derrick Mason and Plaxico Burress is definitely a gamble for the Jets, and Sanchez. Edwards, always chastised for dropped passes, only let one ball slip through his fingers last season and proved to be a clutch performer in the postseason. Cotcher, never a fantasy superstar, has faltered to fifth on the depth chart for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mason provides Sanchez with a reliable, veteran presence. With Burress sidelined with injuries and an overwhelming question mark hovering over his effectiveness, Mason will likely start opposite Santonio Holmes, the deep threat and most talented and productive receiver on the team. Mason, though, despite his age, caught 60 balls for over 900 yards and seven scores with the Baltimore Ravens last year, and will likely average between 11 and 20 yards per catch. In the red zone, an area where the Jets are looking to improve their offense, Mason had six touchdowns a year ago.

Also helping their red-zone offense is jump-and-catch specialist Burress, who, if healthy, will be a candidate for six-to-eight scores in 2011. The cornerbacks in the AFC East alone will not be able to defend Burress’ height and hands. Burress has a high ceiling in TD-heavy leagues, but shouldn’t be drafted as a solid WR3 until it’s known he’s healthy.

It’s finally Shonn Greene in New York, as the former Iowa Hawkeye has been given the keys to the backfield overLaDainian Tomlinson. Greene was overdrafted in leagues far too often last year, primarily because of his impressive playoff performances the season prior. With LT version 3.0 relegated to a candidate for third-down duties – along with second-year back Joe McKnight – Greene will headline the Jets’ run-heavy ground-and-pound attack.

When it’s all said and done, Greene will finish among the top 10 to 12 fantasy running backs this season. On his last legs, Tomlinson finished in the top 20. Greene, receiving 39 less touches, only finished 148 yards behind him. Switch that around, Greene should finish the season with over 900 yards. Greene will also assume goal-line carries, which should help increase his touchdown total to about eight.

New England Patriots

The top-scoring offense in 2010, with the most touchdown passes (37) and eighth-most yards overall (5,820) added more to their arsenal this season. And yes, they still have Tom Brady.

The 2011 NFL MVP, Brady and Michael Vick vied for No. 1 fantasy quarterbacks honors last season, with Brady throwing for 3,900 yards and 36 touchdowns to a cast of unknown characters. In year two of the new-look Patriots, is Brady being – dare I say, underrated?

Brady is ranked behind Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Vick in most draft guides this year, despite Vick’s propensity for being injured and Manning coming off a missed training camp due to neck surgery. And still, Brady outproduced Rodgers head-to-head.

Added to his receiving core is Ochocinco, with an incentive to disprove the doubters who consider his career on the downside. The leading receiver last year was of course PPR specialist Wes Welker (848 yards), ahead of a revitalized Deion Branch and the tandem of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

Ochocinco is a breakout candidate because he’s not receiving the credit he ought to. In Cincinnati, playing underMarvin Lewis and owner Mike Brown, Ochocinco was disgruntled and had no motivation to put forth his best effort because he has no desire to stay with the organization. With a chance to make a deep playoff run and work with arguably the greatest passer of this generation, Ochocinco could emulate what Randy Moss did in 2007, emerging from the dark to be a top receiver, with WR1 potential.

The bigger question marks on the offense pertain to the tight end position, where both Hernandez and Gronkowki wowed in their rookie campaigns. Gronkowski is penciled in as the starter for now, but let’s be honest – that doesn’t carry too much meaning as long as Bill Belichick is still the head coach.

Hernandez began the season as the hot receiver, catching 32 balls between Weeks 1 and 8 for the Pats. He then caught four touchdowns in Weeks 10 to 14, finishing with six for the season.

On the other hand, Gronkowki was more an end zone producer. He caught 10 touchdowns, the most on the team, and surpassed the 100-yard mark in Week 16 against the Dolphins.

Hernandez’s athleticism and Gronkowski’s size make it difficult to decide which tight end will have the better 2011 season. Based upon the current depth chart and end-of-season production, Gronkowski is a better option in touchdown leagues, with Hernandez perhaps in store for more receptions and yards.

The other question mark comes in the backfield, where The Law Firm – BenJarvus Green-Ellis – the team’s leading rusher, has company in the form of a pesky Danny Woodhead and rookies Vereen and Ridley. Oh, and third-down specialist Kevin Faulk is healthy again.

While Vergeen has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, Ridley, the LSU product has thrived, running for 64 yards and two touchdowns, and catching seven passes for 47 yards and a score in the first preseason contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ridley may have the most talent in the backfield, coming off a 1,100 yard, 15-touchdown season as the featured back for the Tigers in 2010. However, the depth in the Pats’ backfield hurts his value, as the Hoodie will rotate the Law Firm, Woodhead and Faulk, as well as Ridley. The carousel hurts all their values.

2011 Free Agent Fits

With a less than a handful of meaningful games in the N.F.L. in Week 17, many off-season-bound teams are looking past their regular season finales and towards their 2011 kickoff. 


Aside from filling gaps in the N.F.L. Draft, teams need to address their glaring needs via free agency. Of the list of the top potential free agents and trade targets on the market this off-season, here are my thoughts on which players could fit in well wearing a different uniform next season.




1. Carolina Panthers: Donovan McNabb


Reports have surfaced that the No. 1 quarterback prospect in the N.F.L. Draft Andrew Luck will remain at Stanford for his senior season, which means the Panthers may not get their guy. Instead of reaching for another quarterback in Ryan Mallett or Jake Locker, why not go  with a proven vet?


Since 2003 when the Panthers made it to the Super Bowl, they have basically toggled winning and losing seasons regularly. They have kept a core nucleus of players though, which would allow for their main problem, the quarterback position, to solve many of their offensive issues. Wouldn't it be nice to see someone get the ball to Steve Smith?


If reports are true that the Skins will release Donovan McNabb at season's end to avoid paying him that disastrous contract they generated after he was benched, why not pair McNabb and Smith to create a formidable threesome with Jonathon Stewart?


2. Cincinnati Bengals: Jeff Fisher


It is not even close. Since 2007 the Cincinnati Bengals lead the N.F.L. in players arrested. To add insult to injury, the team named Cedric 'The Entertainer' Benson the Ed Block Courage Award winner for demonstrating commitment to values and sportsmanship this week. Yeah, the same dude who got pulled over for drunk driving just a few years ago.


Factor in Jeff Fisher, a no-nonsense head coach, who is rumored to be fired by Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams. Think he would let players get blasted and drive home -- fuh-gedda-bout it!


The team needs to be disciplined, and he would be the figure to decide the futures of Terrell Owens (free agent) and Chad Ochocinco (team would owe $3.5M not to pick up his 2011 option) in Cincy.


3. Buffalo Bills: DeAngelo Williams



Since Week 3, when Ryan Fitzpatrick was anointed the starter for the Buffalo Bills, the gunslinger from Harvard has 441 attempts. That's like a 30 per game. Did I mention the dude is from Harvard?


So it's not like Peyton Manning's 639 attempts or Drew Brees' 620, but you're asking Fitzpatrick to carry the Bills offense each week. The team drafted the talents of C.J. Spiller out of Clemson with the ninth overall pick in the 2010 N.F.L. Draft; what's he done?


Clearly you cannot think Fred Jackson is the solution at the running back position for the next few years. With The Daily Show showing he is more than capable of being a primary back in the Tar Heel State, DeAngelo Williams may not get resigned in the off-season. Add him to the backfield and suddenly there is balance in the offense, whether Fitzpatrick is the starter in 2011 or not.

4. Denver Broncos: Santonio Holmes


If Tim Tebow is the future at the quarterback positions for Broncos, then the team needs to surround him with as many offensive talents around him, similar to what he was accustomed to with the Gators.


Of the potential free agents -- Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards, Vincent Jackson -- maybe no other wide-out could fit Tebow's skill set more than Santonio Holmes. While playing with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Holmes was able to adjust his route on the run to complement a quarterback who throws outside the pocket. Sound familiar?


Holmes has provided a big-play threat for Mark Sanchez in his first season with the Jets, and could fit a similar mold at Mile High. Given that playmaker Brandon Marshall was ousted under the Josh McDaniels regime, one of the many poor decisions to send off talent for nothing. The team could use some star power. I don't know if Brandon Lloyd is enough. 


5. Cleveland Browns: Shawne Merriman


After leaving San Diego where he earned his reputation, and a short-lived stint with the Buffalo Bills spent on I.R., many wonder if Shawne Merriman has enough left in his system to resurrect his career.


After being busted for breaking the N.F.L.'s substance-abuse policy, season-ending injuries have plagued the linebacker's career. It has been awhile since we saw this edge-rushing talent play like he did in his first few seasons in the league, so clearly Cleveland would be taking a risk signing him to a multi-year contract.


If there is somebody who can help Merriman rediscover his previous form, Rob Ryan could be the guy. The defensive guru and son of Hall of Fame great Buddy Rice, not to mention the twin brother of infamous Rex Ryan -- he's got a resume. When healthy, Merriman can bring a pass-rushing ability that the Browns definitely lack.


And a big name like Merriman in a win-hungry city like Cleveland can certainly help fill up the Dog Pound. After all, with the talents of LeBron James having fled to South Beach, the biggest name is town is Peyton Hillis.


6. Dallas Cowboys: Champ Bailey


Maybe no collection of talent in the N.F.L. failed to live up to the heavy expectations entering to the 2010 season more than the Cowboys of Dallas (well, San Diego fits the bill, too). 


It is difficult to pinpoint one main flaw on the team. Tony Romo was injured, yet Jon Kitna filled in admirably in his place and maintained an ample offense. The passing game features some of the tops at their positions -- Stone Cold Miles Austin, Jason Witten and rookie sensation Dez Bryant. And running backs Felix Jones, Tashard Choice and Marion Barber are all capable runners.


Defensively, the Boys have talented front seven, featuring probably the best pass-rushing linebacker in DeMarcus Ware. In the secondary, however, there is a heavy dose of youth, which bodes well for the future -- not so good for the present.


What if the Cowboys were snare a veteran cornerback in Champ Bailey, whose play has barely declined with the age. Bailey's 13 passes defended ranks 18th in the league this season, tied with perennial Pro Bowler Ed Reed and ahead of Asante Samuel.


This season, Dallas has allowed the likes of Shaun Hill and Rex Grossman to pass for huge numbers against them. Adding Bailey to complement the secondary's youth movement could pay huge dividends. 


7. Arizona Cardinals: Ochocinco


With Chad Ochocinco making a case to get out of Cincy, especially with Carson Palmer having his best passing performances on the season without him and Terrell Owens in the lineup, paying the man $3.5 may be the best option for the Bengals.


For Ochocinco, Zona could be the ultimate catch for the diva wide-out. When Anquan Boldin was traded to Baltimore, the team expected Steve Breaston to emerge as the No. 2 receiver opposite Larry Fitzgerald, but that move never seemed to pan out.


Having John Skelton at quarterback may not suit Ochocinco well, but if the team decides to draft a rookie or sign a veteran, Ochocinco could provide that reliable threat in the Cards' passing game.


8. San Francisco 49ers:  Kevin Kolb


Michael Vick is a free agent, but if Philly should choose to keep the most dynamic scoring threat in the N.F.L. in Eagles green, then they may elect to put their former quarterback of the future on the trading block.


Neither one of the Smiths -- Alex or Troy -- should have a future as a starting quarterback for San Fran. And in continuing the trend of young offensive talent by the Bay, Kolb could be perfect match.


Kolb didn't turn too many heads this season, but he did fill in adequately when Vick was hurt, and was outstanding when he started two games for Donovan McNabb in 2009.


Giving Kolb a change of scenery and the right offensive mind at coach, and pairing him up with the likes of Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore, and all of a sudden the 49ers have a dangerous, balanced offense that could immediately contend in the division of mediocrity that is the NFC West.


9. Minnesota Vikings: Carson Palmer


Depending on what Bengals ownership decides to do with the current coaching staff and players in The Queen City, Carson Palmer is a potential refugee. Maybe no player in the black and orange needs to head towards greener pastures more than Palmer.


Possible destinations for Palmer could include San Fran, Miami and Arizona, but perhaps no better fit would be Minnesota, who has a Super Bowl-caliber team that simply failed to perform to their abilities under the coaching of Brad Childress.

Adding Palmer to an offensive loaded with weapons like Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe, with a consistent rushing attack led by Adrian Peterson, could allow the Vikes to return to contention in the N.F.C. right away.


10. Houston Texans: Jon Gruden


After finally conquering the rival Colts early on in the season, the Texans seemed destined to earn the A.F.C. South crown after what felt like a yearly go at it that would almost inevitably result in a .500 record. To their dismay, they took another trip down that road.


Now Texans fans are making their feelings known and are calling for the job of head coach Gary Kubiak. And while he has put together a competitive group each and every year, the collapse of the Texans in 2010 should spell the end of his run.


One candidate to replace Kubiak is ESPN's Jon Gruden, who seems to be on every team's wish list, college or N.F.L, every team from Miami to San Francisco. 


Gruden's extensive offensive experience would work wonders in Houston, and his knowledge of personnel and coaching assistants would allow him to easily put together a top-notch staff on the defensive side of the ball as well. If the Texans fans want a change at head coach, Gruden should be their guy.

The Man Behind the NFC's Best

A lot has been said about the mediocrity abundant in the NFC this season. The favorites -- the Cowboys, the Vikings, the Super Bowl champion New Orleans saints -- have all floundered.

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The Dallas Cowboys recently ousted their head coach after nine weeks, the first time they had ever fired a coach mid-season in their history. After being favored as a Super Bowl contender, the team is off to just a 1-7 start. Their offensive woes are almost as glaring as their defensive struggles. They can't score and they can't stop anybody -- that sounds like a winning formula.

Then there was the Minnesota Vikings. With Brett Favre back for another rendezvous, the team looked forward to another explosive offensive to go along with their always dominant defensive attack. But after a series of sext messages, broken shoulders, chins, ankles, hips, a Randy Moss trade, a Randy Moss release and a campaign to fire the head coach, the 2010 version of the Purple People Eaters are looking up at their arch nemesis the Green Bay Packers and Da Bears in the NFC North.

And finally there was America's sweethearts. After capturing the attention of fans across the country with their Cinderella story, the New Orleans lost games to the Atlanta Falcons, the Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns? So much for the Super Bowl hangover; losing to the Colt McCoy-led Browns is more like a blackout.

But it was a traditional NFC superpower that reemerged in 2010, led by their traditionally tenacious defense to bring them top to the top of the conference. You know who I'm talking about...G-G-G-G-G-Men!

The New York Football Giants have risen to the top of NFC, led by their defensive prowess. No, they did not sign any superstars in the offseason. They didn't drive a phenom in the draft to start right away. What they did was find an underrated defensive mind to put together the pieces of the puzzle left behind by Tom Coughlin's defensive coordinator in 2009, Bill Sheridan.

Perry Fewell was hired in January to take over the Giants defense after a pathetic campaign last season. Fewell was a candidate for the Buffalo Bills head coaching gig after leading the team to a 3-4 finish after serving as the interim manager following the firing of Dick Jauron.

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As a head coach for seven weeks, Fewell lifted a talent-lacking Bills team to wins over Miami, Kansas and Indianapolis, who was really sporting their second team. However, in their four losses, they faced off against a resurgent Titans squad led by Vince Young and 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson, and two playoff teams in the Jets and Patriots, losing by a combined 13 points.

Fewell's defensive strategy dates back to being a defensive back coach with the Chicago Bears in 2004 and 2005 and piloting the defense in Buffalo for four seasons. But after the Bills went in another direction and opted to hire Chan Gailey to replace him as head coach, the G-Men saw a diamond in the rough, and quickly they snatched him up.

Coughlin and Fewell had a history from their time together in Jacksonville, so he must have had confidence his disciple could clean up the mess that was the 2009 Giants defense.

A rash of injuries plagued the team that season: Defensive lineman Chris Canty was signed from the Cowboys after totaling 10 sacks in four seasons in Dallas. Linebacker Michael Boley was signed from the Falcons after a 330-tackle, six-sack, five-interception stint. First-round draft pick safety Kenny Phillips dealt with a knee injury, while defensive quarterback Antonio Pierce was sidelined with a bulging disk in his neck.

Meanwhile, the Giants were forced to move cornerback Aaron Ross into multiple positions in the secondary, while former standout Osi Umenyiora was close to being released due to a lack of production. Justin Tuck, who emerged in 2007 with 10 sacks and two forced fumbles, and who improved in 2008, played through a torn labrum in his shoulder last year as well.

With a healthy unit and a new leader, the G-Men defense now sports the best defense in all the NFL, allowing just over 250 yards per game. New York gives up less than 14 first downs per game and allows its opponents to convert on third down 29 percent of the time. They rank number one in forced fumbles with 16, and are tied for fifth in sacks (24) and tied for ninth in interceptions (9). The team has allowed just four scores on the ground and one rush over 40 yards, as their rushing defense is second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

So before we point to $60 million dollar man Eli Manning the reason for the Giants turnaround, let's not look to what the Giants have prided themselves on for the better part of their history. And while health is a main factor, it is important to recognize the man pulling all the strings behind the curtain.