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Today marks the first of eight division previews in a series of my fantasy sleeper series. Beginning with the AFC East, we’ll examine possibly breakout candidates that you could target in the earlier, middle and later rounds of your fantasy football draft.
Tom Brady and Ochocinco should be a dynamic duo in 2011 for fantasy owners.
The AFC East is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will have trouble scoring again in 2011, after finishing 28th and 30th, respectively, a season ago.
The New York Jets, the 13th-highest scoring offense in 2010, have regressed on the offensive side of the ball after losing Braylon Edwards, the team’s leading receiver, and Jericho Cotchery, a safety valve for Mark Sanchez.
Perhaps the team who led the National Football League in scoring last season will repeat, especially adding Chad Ochocinco to the receiving core. The New England Patriots’ rookie tight ends have a year in the system under their belt, and added two more weapons in the backfield in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in the 2011 draft.
Here’s a list of possible sleepers in the division:
Buffalo Bills
Though he’s not a top-tier quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick put together a 3,000-yard campaign last season, despite a lack of talent surrounding him. Fitzpatrick started 13 games, the most in a season of his career, likely projecting for more than 3,500 if given a full 16-game season.
Fitzpatrick lost Lee Evans, who for many years led the Bills in receiving yardage. Instead, he found Speedy Stevie Johnson, who compiled 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns with Fitzpatrick behind center. Johnson is the clear-cut starting wideout in Buffalo, with a WR2 ceiling as long as Fitzpatrick stays health. It’s not like Tyler Thigpen is pushing him for his job.
There’s also been talk of Donald Jones replacing Evans’ production as the starting flanker opposite Johnson. It appears as if David Nelson, though, is a superior option out of the slot, considering there’s no true receiving threat from the tight end position. Nelson, according to Pro Football Focus, led all wide receivers with 94.35 percent of his snaps from the slot last year. Jones caught more than 58 percent of his passes over the middle and on plays short of 10 yards, giving him more value in PPR leagues.
In the backfield, Fred Jackson is once again going to be the team’s leading rusher, as C.J. Spiller will prove yet again he did not warrant the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 draft. Spiller didn’t surpass 300 yards rushing in his rookie season, nor did he impress much as a receiver out of the backfield. He scored two touchdowns, one on a kickoff return. Head coach Chan Gailey has stated he wants to use Spiller in a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles type of role; but it’s yet to be seen whether Spiller has the talent of those two third-down backs.
Miami Dolphins
The fan don’t want Chad Henne to play quarterback; but head coach Tony Sparano doesn’t seem to really care…even if second-stringer Matt Moore outplayed him thus far in the preseason. Henne, considered a steal in the second round of the NFL Draft a few years back, has failed to impress in his first two seasons as the Fins’ starter.
Henne has improved each year – slightly – increasing his completion percentage, yardage total, touchdowns, as well as interceptions. He finished in the bottom third of fantasy quarterback rankings in 2010, despite the addition of Brandon Marshall to his receiving corps.
Understandably, Moore doesn’t even match up to Kyle Orton, who was nearly traded from the Denver Broncosearlier in the offseason. However, he hasn’t really received the credit he’s due as an NFL quarterback.
Dealing with inferior talent in Carolina, Moore, in five games started before missing the season due to injury, threw for 857 yards and five touchdowns while completing 55 percent of his passes. It doesn’t sound like much, but consider this: he played against the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams and New Orleans Saints – four teams whose defense ranked in the top half of the league’s best against the pass.
Overall, in 14 more career starts, Henne has a 27-33 TD-INT ratio. Moore: 16-17. Tell me why Henne is that much better.
Among the Dolphins’ skill players, the team traded in the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams for Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, the second-round bruiser out of Kansas State. Currently Bush is penciled in as the starter, but we’ve seen in New Orleans that Bush doesn’t have the capabilities to be an every-down back. It’s just a matter of time before Thomas starts stealing Bush’s carries, and Bush assumes third-down responsibilities.
Despite an offseason stabbing, Marshall is above and beyond the best receiving threat on the Dolphins. Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are No. 2 and 3, respectively, with Bess’ sure hands out of the slot a sure option to finish second on the team in receptions, a solid performer in PPR leagues. Aside from the top three, it’s a crop of unproven receivers, none of which seem to have fantasy value. Anthony Fasano, who is tied with Bess for the most touchdown receptions with Henne quarterbacking, barely warrants a TE3 ranking.
New York Jets
Losing Edwards and Cotchery and signing Derrick Mason and Plaxico Burress is definitely a gamble for the Jets, and Sanchez. Edwards, always chastised for dropped passes, only let one ball slip through his fingers last season and proved to be a clutch performer in the postseason. Cotcher, never a fantasy superstar, has faltered to fifth on the depth chart for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Mason provides Sanchez with a reliable, veteran presence. With Burress sidelined with injuries and an overwhelming question mark hovering over his effectiveness, Mason will likely start opposite Santonio Holmes, the deep threat and most talented and productive receiver on the team. Mason, though, despite his age, caught 60 balls for over 900 yards and seven scores with the Baltimore Ravens last year, and will likely average between 11 and 20 yards per catch. In the red zone, an area where the Jets are looking to improve their offense, Mason had six touchdowns a year ago.
Also helping their red-zone offense is jump-and-catch specialist Burress, who, if healthy, will be a candidate for six-to-eight scores in 2011. The cornerbacks in the AFC East alone will not be able to defend Burress’ height and hands. Burress has a high ceiling in TD-heavy leagues, but shouldn’t be drafted as a solid WR3 until it’s known he’s healthy.
It’s finally Shonn Greene in New York, as the former Iowa Hawkeye has been given the keys to the backfield overLaDainian Tomlinson. Greene was overdrafted in leagues far too often last year, primarily because of his impressive playoff performances the season prior. With LT version 3.0 relegated to a candidate for third-down duties – along with second-year back Joe McKnight – Greene will headline the Jets’ run-heavy ground-and-pound attack.
When it’s all said and done, Greene will finish among the top 10 to 12 fantasy running backs this season. On his last legs, Tomlinson finished in the top 20. Greene, receiving 39 less touches, only finished 148 yards behind him. Switch that around, Greene should finish the season with over 900 yards. Greene will also assume goal-line carries, which should help increase his touchdown total to about eight.
New England Patriots
The top-scoring offense in 2010, with the most touchdown passes (37) and eighth-most yards overall (5,820) added more to their arsenal this season. And yes, they still have Tom Brady.
The 2011 NFL MVP, Brady and Michael Vick vied for No. 1 fantasy quarterbacks honors last season, with Brady throwing for 3,900 yards and 36 touchdowns to a cast of unknown characters. In year two of the new-look Patriots, is Brady being – dare I say, underrated?
Brady is ranked behind Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Vick in most draft guides this year, despite Vick’s propensity for being injured and Manning coming off a missed training camp due to neck surgery. And still, Brady outproduced Rodgers head-to-head.
Added to his receiving core is Ochocinco, with an incentive to disprove the doubters who consider his career on the downside. The leading receiver last year was of course PPR specialist Wes Welker (848 yards), ahead of a revitalized Deion Branch and the tandem of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
Ochocinco is a breakout candidate because he’s not receiving the credit he ought to. In Cincinnati, playing underMarvin Lewis and owner Mike Brown, Ochocinco was disgruntled and had no motivation to put forth his best effort because he has no desire to stay with the organization. With a chance to make a deep playoff run and work with arguably the greatest passer of this generation, Ochocinco could emulate what Randy Moss did in 2007, emerging from the dark to be a top receiver, with WR1 potential.
The bigger question marks on the offense pertain to the tight end position, where both Hernandez and Gronkowki wowed in their rookie campaigns. Gronkowski is penciled in as the starter for now, but let’s be honest – that doesn’t carry too much meaning as long as Bill Belichick is still the head coach.
Hernandez began the season as the hot receiver, catching 32 balls between Weeks 1 and 8 for the Pats. He then caught four touchdowns in Weeks 10 to 14, finishing with six for the season.
On the other hand, Gronkowki was more an end zone producer. He caught 10 touchdowns, the most on the team, and surpassed the 100-yard mark in Week 16 against the Dolphins.
Hernandez’s athleticism and Gronkowski’s size make it difficult to decide which tight end will have the better 2011 season. Based upon the current depth chart and end-of-season production, Gronkowski is a better option in touchdown leagues, with Hernandez perhaps in store for more receptions and yards.
The other question mark comes in the backfield, where The Law Firm – BenJarvus Green-Ellis – the team’s leading rusher, has company in the form of a pesky Danny Woodhead and rookies Vereen and Ridley. Oh, and third-down specialist Kevin Faulk is healthy again.
While Vergeen has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, Ridley, the LSU product has thrived, running for 64 yards and two touchdowns, and catching seven passes for 47 yards and a score in the first preseason contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Ridley may have the most talent in the backfield, coming off a 1,100 yard, 15-touchdown season as the featured back for the Tigers in 2010. However, the depth in the Pats’ backfield hurts his value, as the Hoodie will rotate the Law Firm, Woodhead and Faulk, as well as Ridley. The carousel hurts all their values.
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