E-mail Sam
Follow Sam on Twitter
One of the most competitive divisions in all the National Football League and one the deepest in fantasy talent, the AFC South saw its fantasy pool grow through the draft this past April. With many young superstars, let’s examine which should be targeted at your fantasy draft.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One of our favor waiver wire selections last year was LeGarrette Blount, who down the stretch of the season posted RB1-type numbers. From Week 7 on, Blount rushed for 977 yards (88.8 per game) and five touchdowns. In contrast, that was more than 10 of the top 12 rushers – Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis, Ray Rice, Ahmad Bradshaw, Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson andMichael Turner. Only Jamaal Charles and the league’s leading rusher Arian Foster rushed for more yards during that span.
Over a full 16-game schedule, Blount projects to more than 1,400 yards and between 10 to 12 total touchdowns, which is most rankings would earn top-tier RB1 numbers. And with the loss of Cadillac Williams to the St. Louis Rams, Blount is in store to get more opportunities to make an impact in the Bucs’ passing game, too.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers' LeGarrette Blount rushed for 977 yards from Week 7 on, more than 10 of the 12 leading rushers in 2010.
Blount, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, is being drafted towards the end of the third round, behind backs like Jackson and Turner and Jones-Drew, who are riddled with question marks heading into 2011. The third round is a steal for Blount; he’s easily a second-round talent.
The other Buc not receiving his due credit is Mike Williams, the talented second-year wide receiver who has far and away distinguished himself asJosh Freeman’s go-to guy. In his rookie season, Williams caught 11 touchdown passes – and did so in a consistent fashion. His longest touchdown drought was two weeks.
Williams ranked 13th in targets in 2010, tied with the likes of Hakeem Nicks, ahead of WR1s like Greg Jennings, Miles Austin and Mike Wallace, all of whom are being drafted ahead of Williams. Like Blount, he’s being overlooked and underrated; draft with confidence.
Atlanta Falcons
Once touted as one of the up-and-coming quarterbacks in the league, now Matt Ryan is being considered one of the up-and-coming fantasy quarters in the league.
Last year, Ryan attempted and completed more passes, throwing for a career-high 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns, only being picked off nine times. As we know, there’s two different schools of thought when it comes to drafting quarterbacks: draft an elite quarterback early (or devote a lot of money in your auction budget), or stockpile talent positions and get your quarterback late. Ryan is the type of quarterback you can gamble on later and expect results.
Ryan is being drafted ninth among quarterbacks in 10-team leagues. He not only has an elite wide receiver inRoddy White, a Hall of Fame-bound tight end in Tony Gonzalez and perennial Pro Bowl running back Michael Turner, but the team traded up in the draft to snare Julio Jones out of Alabama to buff up the receiving corps and add yet another weapon for the fourth-year signal-caller.
White and Jones already classify as one of the more formidable receiver tandems in the entire league. Coming out of four straight 1,000-plus-yard seasons, double-digit touchdown totals in the last two, White has distinguished himself as an elite talent, and he’s finally garnering the credit he deserves.
Jones, an impressive physical being, is already inserted into the starting lineup, and will be the reason whyteams can no longer double-team White. With Gonzalez commanding the attention of linebackers in the middle of the field, and White and Jones spread out wide, Ryan and the Falcons’ passing game should thrive in 2011.
Of course, with Jones being the recipient of more passes, White owners should expect a dip in his product, mainly in PPR leagues. Still, though, White is an elite receiver, and Jones should be a safe WR3. Gonzalez, being drafted eighth among tight ends in 10-team leagues, should be a safe TE1.
Quick Hit: Despite a 1,371-yard, 12-touchdown campaign in 2010, Turner is a back expected to start declining this season. Of course, a small dip in those numbers would still be wonderful for owners. However, Turner is in his eighth season in the league, and he’s ran the ball more than 330 times in two of the past three years, after missing five games due to injury in 2009.
Turner has the potential to be a touchdown machine, but eventually the heavy workload has to catch up with him. We already saw third-down back Jason Snelling begin to steal carries from Turner, which could help Turner stay on the field for first- and second-down, but it does cut into his production.
Carolina Panthers
Before you can ask, the answer is no; do not expect Cam Newton to be a fantasy sleeper. If you don’t believe, seewhat I wrote back in the spring.
However, with a rookie quarterback behind center, or Jimmy Clausen for that matter, a heavy running attack is to be relied on. But due to the Panthers resigning DeAngelo Williams, an already cluttered backfield just got a lot more confusing. Ugh.
Addressing the best wide receiver corps the Panthers have had in years, surprisingly, expect Steve Smith to have yet another wasted season. Newton has a big arm, but we’ve yet to see him air it out to Smith to burn opposing defenses, especially within a division with some talented defensive backs.
Smith has been on the decline since 2008, when he lost Jake Delhomme and began the quarterback carousel ofMatt Moore and Clausen. Smith barely put up WR4 numbers last season, but with Delhomme he managed to finish WR2-worthy. The Panthers’ third preseason game should help forecast the chemistry between Newton and Smith.
One option to surprise, however, is tight end Greg Olsen, who the Panthers traded for from the Chicago Bears. The talented pass-catcher fell out of favor in Mike Martz’s offense, and could benefit from a rookie quarterback. Olsen, currently the 17th tight end being taken, could easily emerge as Newton’s safety valve, and perhaps his main target. Draft as a back-up; he could surprise.
New Orleans Saints
Frequently being heralded as the offseason victors, the Saints added one key component on the offensive side of the ball that turned heads. I am, of course, talking about drafting Mark Ingram this past April.
Are we making too much of a big deal about it, though?
Ingram currently sits second atop the depth chart behind incumbent Pierre Thomas, while the team also addedDarren Sproles to fulfill the third-down back role. Considered the candidate to receive goal-line carries, Ingram is perhaps a bit overrated.
He’s still not the team’s featured back; the best-case scenario that he and Thomas split carries evenly this season. Nonetheless, Ingram is being drafted in the fifth around, ahead of Thomas.
There is, however, a good chance Thomas gets hurt this year. Thomas has yet to play in all 16 games in his career, and missed eight games due to an ankle injury that required surgery last year.
When healthy, Thomas is a threat near the goal line, where in 2008, as the featured back, scored seven touchdowns between the opponents’ 19- and one-yard line. That is, of course, expected to be Ingram’s role this season. We’ll have to see what head coach Sean Peyton decides to do – but for now, consider Ingram only in touchdown-heavy leagues.
The Saints’ biggest concern should be their wideouts. Their No. 1 receiver, Marques Colston, is coming off yet another knee surgery, and experience irritation and swelling earlier this month. The surgery was Colston’s fifth in five career seasons, so there’s a question of whether he’ll be able to maintain health over the course of the season.
Colston, to his credit, was a clear-cut WR1 down the stretch of the 2011 season, though. From Week 7 to Week 16, (he did not play Week 17), he caught 54 passes (5.4 per game) for 683 yards and seven touchdowns, right when fantasy owners were selling him after a painfully slow start.
So it is tough to write Colston off, because when healthy, he and Drew Brees are among the top duos in the NFL. If he’s injured to start the season, do not expect the No. 2 wide receiver, Devery Henderson, to take his place.
Henderson is not even considered a lock to make the Saints’ roster this year, and instead its slot receiver extraordinaire Lance Moore turning heads. Moore, fresh off a five-year deal signed in the offseason, scored a team-high eight touchdowns and was the second-most popular target. Currently the 47th receiver taken, taken behind Santana Moss, Hines Ward, Michael Crabtree, Johnny Knox, Moore could be a late-round steal.
Quick Hit: Jimmy Graham, the Saints’ second-year tight end who caught five touchdowns last year, is considered a break-out candidate with the departure of Jeremy Shockey. While Graham could be in store for another five-touchdown campaign, the addition of Ingram convinces me Brees will look less to pass by the goal line, where Graham caught all of his touchdowns. However, Graham’s usually the seventh tight end off the board. If you’re not planning to spend big or invest in a tight end early, he’s not the worst option to settle for in touchdown-heavy leagues.
No comments:
Post a Comment