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The Wild Wild West saw its share of fantasy surprises in 2010, as well as some ultimate busts. The Kansas City Chiefs turned out to be an offensive juggernaut, while Mike Tolbert turned out to be the better back than Ryan Mathews. What should we make of the AFC West this year?
Denver Broncos
Kyle Orton won the quarterback competition over Tim Tebow, if you haven’t heard. But with Orton, the Broncos are getting a sure thing behind center. So with Tebow supposedly battling to be the third- or fourth-string quarterback now, Orton is the one to target.
He’s not going to wow you with his heroism like Tom Brady or his record-breaking performances like Peyton Manning, but Orton is solid producer and a valid starter in a 12-team league. Last season, his career year was cut short because then-head coach Josh McDaniels benched him due to injury in an effort to get Tebow on the field.
Orton had 1,733 yards and eight touchdowns through five weeks last year. After a two-game slump, he picked up where he left off and tossed another 1,229 yards and five touchdowns. Keep in mind that he was operating in McDaniels’ pass-first scheme, and with John Fox on the sidelines there will be a greater emphasis on the running game.
Consider Orton a high-upside QB2 and a solid back-up option. He has potential, despite the lack of weapons around him and the little faith his coaches have put into him.
The less pass attempts also diminish the value of wideout Brandon Lloyd. Currently the 18th receiver drafted, he’s being considered a better investment than Santonio Holmes, Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin and Jeremy Maclin.
Lloyd may have had a career season in 2010, but there’s no way that he can replicate those results given the new offensive system he’s in and the fact that there may be a new quarterback throwing him passes mid-season.
Broncos' Knowshon Moreno could be in store for a breakout season under new head coach John Fox and a revamped running game.
If we’re talking running game in Denver, we’re talking about third-year running back Knownshon Moreno, who is entering a critical make-or-break year in his career. Moreno has yet to surpass 1,000 yards in a season, though his statics reveal some potential to be used in aDeAngelo Williams-like way.
Moreno has impressedduring training camp, showing up in the best physical shape of any player. All the tealeaves spell that Moreno is in store for a breakout season, but to be safe consider him a RB2 or flex option before we see results on the field.
Moreno owners should also keep an eye on Willis MacGahee, who signed with the Broncos as a goal-line back. In touchdown-heavy leagues, MacGahee is a great gamble in the later rounds, especially if you went after Moreno.
Kansas City Chiefs
The year 2011 should be heralded as The Year of Jamaal Charles. His 2010 breakout campaign had fantasy owners intrigued and frustrated – sure he managed almost 2,000 yards from scrimmage and eight scores, but why does Todd Haley insist of feeding Thomas Jones with carries?
Charles rushed the ball 230 times in an effort to remain healthy and effective throughout the season, and Haley believes this is the right formula for the Chiefs to win. However, though he won’t just come out and say he wants Charles to have an even bigger workload, he’s surely implied it.
Charles was suddenly thrust into the elite four running backs for 2011, along with Adrian Peterson, Arian Fosterand Chris Johnson. Though I would not hesitate to snare Charles in a snake draft, I’m not paying huge money for him in an auction. Unlike the aforementioned backs, Charles is still splitting carries, and there’s a chance he loses goal-line carries to Jones. He’s obviously a RB1 because of his talents, though I’d be wary of ranking him along the likes of AP or CJ.
The other Chief who enjoyed a breakout season under Haley’s direction was Dwayne Bowe, who, when paired with Matt Cassell, had almost 1,200 yards and a league-high 15 touchdowns.
There are plenty of naysayers, though, that believe Bowe’s 2010 season was merely an aberration and that there’s not a chance he can produce those same numbers this year. I don’t think Bowe can catch 15 touchdowns again, but I do expect him to post WR1 numbers.
The Chiefs bolstered their wide receiver corps by adding Steve Breaston in the slot and drafting Jonathon Baldwin out of Pittsburgh. Jerheme Urban, who spent all of last season on injured reserve with a torn flexor tendon in his right hand, is taking snaps as the flanker opposite of Bowe. That’s a pretty electric top four wideouts, if Urban can prove to be a capable No. 2 receiver. Baldwin, recovering from a thumb injury, could eventually replace Urban during the season.
Quick Hit: If you’re looking for a sleeper tight end, consider Tony Moeaki. In his first season, Moeaki caught three touchdowns, all within the opponents’ 20-yard line. Another year in the league, another season in Haley’s system, Moeaki could double those touchdown numbers and be drafted as your back-up.
San Diego Chargers
You know who led the National Football League in passing last year? Not Manning, or Brady, or Drew Brees; it was Philip Rivers.
Still, with Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers better threats to post more touchdowns with their athleticism, Rivers is arguable the best pure passer and should be the third quarterback off the board in all leagues.
Rivers tossed 4,710 yards and 30 touchdowns last season. His leading receiver: Antonio Gates, who played in just 10 games. Second: Malcolm Floyd, who played in 11 games. Third: Vincent Jackson, who played in five.
What Rivers did was make the most out of an awful situation in San Diego. Receivers riddled by injury, a running game that did not exist, and Rivers threw 30 touchdowns to the likes of Seyi Ajirotuto and Patrick Crayton andKelley Washington. Now imagine what he can do with a healthy Gates and a full 16 games with Jackson.
Now keep in mind Jackson held out last season in hopes of being rewarded with a new contract. He’s taken the opposite approach this year, playing for that big-money deal. Tell me what’s more intriguing that a 6-5 wideout paired up with Rivers in a contract year?
The Chargers’ passing attack is going to be dynamic, no question about it. The running game, though, is suspect. It’s Ryan Mathews’ sophomore year, after a rookie campaign where he did finish with 675 yards and seven rushing scores in just a dozen games.
But Mathews’ value is hurt by the grounder, the pounder that is Mike Tolbert, who’s expected to be the goal-line and short-yardage back in the team’s two-back system. Tolbert finished fifth among backs with 11 touchdowns last season, tied with Chris Johnson and Peyton Hillis.
Mathews is being drafted 22nd among running backs, ahead of Mark Ingram, Ryan Grant and Fred Jackson.Meanwhile, Tolbert is being drafted nine slots later, and will be the far superior fantasy producer in 2011.
Oakland Raiders
Here’s a sleeper for ya, Terrelle Pryor. Nah, but I would stay tuned to see if Hue Jackson finds an innovative way to use the former Ohio State quarterback in the offense, somehow, someway.
Perhaps the safest – if you want to deem it that – fantasy commodity on the R-R-R-aiders is Darren McFadden, a season removed from his breakout campaign. McFadden finished fifth in yards from scrimmage last season, with almost 1,200 rushing yards and over 500 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns.
In 2011, under Jackson’s tutelage, the Raiders offense was constructed around Run DMC’s talents…whatever that means. The Raiders’ offensive line ranked 26th in the league last season, and their best wideout would normally be a third or fourth receiver on a championship-caliber team.
As the centerpiece of the offense, barring injury, McFadden should be in store for another top-10-like season. He’s being drafted ninth among running backs, though he should outproduce a player like LeSean McCoybecause of the fewer talented players around him.
Among the wideouts, Jacoby Ford is the Raiders’ No. 1 option right now, as Louis Murphy, the team’s leader in touchdown receptions in 2009, is injured. In his rookie season, Ford finished fourth on the team in receiving yardage behind the team’s leading pass-catcher, Zach Miller, who has since left for Seattle.
Ford has been a coach’s favorite this offseason, and has added value as a kickoff returner. Last season Ford returned three kickoffs for touchdowns, tied among the best in the league along with Leon Washington.
Ford is being drafted as the 42nd receiver, and he’s definitely worth it with the kickoff return points. Draft Murphy, too, as a late-round flier towards the end of your draft.
Quick Hit: Replacing Miller as the Raiders’ tight end is Kevin Boss, who was signed away from the New York Giants, and could actually upgrade the position.
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