Fantasy Preview: AFC South

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Last year, the AFC South played host to the biggest fantasy sleeper, Arian Foster, as well as top-10 talents likePeyton Manning, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Ironically, all four of those fantasy superstars have glaring question marks hovering over them entering the 2011 season.

Indianapolis Colts

The biggest news out of Colts camps this weekend was that Manning may not be starting under center in Week 1 against the Houston Texans. Manning is recovering from offseason neck surgery, and has yet to participate in team drills. He said he’s a little behind schedule in his recovery, and Colts owner Jim Irsay implied it was likely the Manning will miss the early part of the season.

In 2008, Manning missed the entire preseason and training camp after having surgery to remove an infected bursar sac in his left knee. The lack of a preseason showed its ill effects, though, as Manning tossed a combined three touchdowns in his first three contests, and threw four interceptions during that same span.

However, after a bye week in Week 4, Manning began to resemble his usual self; he threw for 24 touchdowns to just nine picks the rest of the season, leading the Colts to 11 straight wins from Week 9 on en route to the playoffs.

Will Peyton Manning's offseason surgery and lack of training camp cause him to miss time in 2011?

It took Manning about a month, the usual length of a training camp, to ready himself into his regular-season form. If, hypothetically, Manning misses Weeks 1 and 2, and struggles through his first month back, he really will not put up top-tier quarterback numbers. Manning threw just 27 touchdowns that 2008 season without missing any regular season games; he would be on pace to throw between 20 and 25 in 2011, ranking him outside the top 10, around Sam Bradford, Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler.

Of course if Curtis Painter or newly signed Dan Orlovskystarts for Indy in Manning’s absence, the wide receiver corps’ draft stock all take an enormous blow. Reggie Wayne’s stock has already fallen in pre-draft rankings this season, despite posting yet another 1,300-yard, six touchdown campaign in 2010.

Wayne obviously won’t produce early in the year without Manning rifling passes to him, but the fact you can draft him orAustin Collie and Dallas Clark in the later rounds could be a draft strategy. When Manning is healthy, he will post week-to-week numbers that will be among the top quarterbacks in the league; as will his receivers. If you draft the Colts as back-ups, they can pay off with starter-like statistics later and down the playoff run.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Another major injury concern out of the AFC South is the health of MoJo-Drew’s knee.

Jones-Drew had offseason surgery on his knee, which has fantasy guru’s questioning his ability to display the burst and quickness that allowed to him to run for back-to-back 1,300-yard seasons.

However, Jones-Drew suggests he’s fully healthy and that fantasy owners should draft him with ease. He’s probably a top-10 running back still, but we’ve yet to see him on the field, so how could we expect him to keep his word?

So far, he’s impressed in training camp. With a quarterback controversy brewing in Jacksonville, and a lack of a true No. 1 wideout, the Jags should rely on a heavy rushing attack all season long. Of course if David Garrard is anointed the starter he’s more of a threat to produce in the passing game, opening holes for the backs; if it’s first-rounder Blaine Gabbert taking snaps by mid-season then Jones-Drew should expect nine-men defensive fronts.

There is, of course, another setback foreseen by reporters. Rashad Jennings, Jones-Drew’s backup. This is nothing new in Jacksonville; in MoJo-Drew’s first few seasons, he split carries with the incumbent, Fred Taylor. And after seeing what Jennings is capable of last year – 5.5 yards per carry, four touchdowns and a receiving threat out of the backfield – another two-back system may be on the horizon.

Jones-Drew signed a five-year deal in 2009, so the team shouldn’t be worried about giving Jennings an opportunity to supplant Jones-Drew right away. But if they’re worried about their featured back’s recently repaired knee, or the fact he’s carried the ball close to or more than 300 times the past two seasons, then Jennings will get his fair share of carries. Consider Jennings a must-have handcuff, and a RB2 if Jones-Drew is injured at some point in the year.

Quick Hit: The loss of Mike Sims-Walker, really a mediocre wide receiver, leaves the Jaguars short of a true No. 1 threat. Mike Thomas showed glimpses of being a main receiver last year, posting 73 catches for over 850 yards and five touchdowns. Upgraded in the depth chart, as long as Garrard is under center, consider Thomas the only receiver worth drafting. He’s a safe WR3, with WR2 upside.

Houston Texans

Last year, Foster shocked the fantasy football world, going from Ben Tate’s back-up to the dude who blasted the Colts for 231 yards and three touchdowns in his season debut. A year later he’s considered the top-ranked running back, or least among the top three elite backs.

There was a quick scare for prospective Foster owners after missing the preseason opener against the New York Jets with a sore hammy. But Foster returned to action Sunday, rushing for 95 yards and scoring thrice against the News Orleans Saints in the first half.

Because of Foster’s ability to run and catch passes, he has a higher upside than both Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, his two closest competitors at the top fantasy back. He led the National Football League in rushing yardage, rushing touchdowns, yards per attempt, yards per game, receiving touchdowns and yards from scrimmage in 2010 – wow. And the fact is that he is now the centerpiece of a high-scoring offense translates into another spectacular season.

The only question mark is his health, as it is with every talented player. The preseason hamstring injury should be buried, but if it were to pop up again, consider Tate the best option to replace him. Derrick Ward is currently slated as the No. 2 back, but Tate was highly touted in pre-draft rankings for a reason; Ward is just a veteran who’s been in the system longer. We also saw Chris Ogbonnaya tear up the Jets in the preseason opener.

The emergence of Foster seems to have indirectly hurt the stock of quarterback Matt Schaub. After throwing three straight 4,000-plus-yard seasons, averaging 26 touchdowns per season, Schaub is merely ranked at the bottom of the top-10 quarterbacks, sometimes considered No. 11 or 12.

Schaub has a dynamic back lined up behind him, but that only forces opposing defenses to prepare for either a smash-mouth running game or a more-than-capable passing attack based primarily on wideout Andre Johnson.

Johnson, year-in, year-out should be considered the top wide receiver. He’s put together three consecutive 1,200-plus-yard seasons, five in all, with eight touchdowns four years in a row. Drafting Johnson is equivalent to drafting a RB1 because of his consistency.  If you miss out on a Ray Rice or Jones-Drew, and you’re nearing the second class of running backs, make a play for Johnson, a sure thing.

The best Texans receiver aside from Johnson is tight end Owen Daniels, who appears to be fully healthy after two injury-plagued seasons. His last full season, in 2008, Daniels caught 70 passes for 862 yards and five touchdowns. Not only a safety valve for Schaub, Daniels receivers a lot of attention with defensive backs focusing on Johnson and linebackers struggling to keep up with him. He can match the production of Dallas Clark orVernon Davis, if healthy, and should be considered the No. 2 wideout on the team compared to Kevin Walter orJacoby Jones.

Tennessee Titans

Out with the old and in with the … old. The Titans exchanged veteran signal-callers this offseason, replacing the retired Kerry Collins with Matt Hasselbeck, who despite a mediocre 18-touchdown season last year with theSeattle Seahawks, lifted his team to the second weekend of the NFL playoffs.

Of course Hasselbeck isn’t a plausible option to start on your fantasy team; he had one 300-yard passing performance last season, and give in the last four years. But his veteran presence allows for Kenny Britt to be a high-upside WR2 for 2011.

Britt, despite a lack of a true quarterback under center his first two years with the Titans, has posted back-to-back 42-reception seasons, posting more than 700 yards both years. Far and away the most talented receiver on the roster, Britt should see an increase in targets, receive yards and touchdowns in 2011.

However, his productivity is contingent on a date with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell Tuesday, which will determine if and the length of a suspension for some offseason antics that made headlines for the wrong reason. If suspended for more than two games, obviously Britt’s stock will take a huge hit, but like we discussed with the Colts wide receivers earlier, he could be drafted later on, or for less auction money, and could have an immediate impact when he returns.

The presence of Hasselbeck will benefit Chris Johnson, if and when the No. 3-ranked running back reports to Titans camp. Johnson had what fantasy owners would deem a “down year” in 2010, rushing for 1,200 yards and 10 total touchdowns after a 2,000-yard season the year prior with 16 total scores.

Johnson saw more defenses loading up the box against him when Collins went down and Vince Young was benched. Stuck with Rusty Smith as his quarterback on a struggling offense, Johnson still produced Pro Bowl numbers, including the fourth-higher rushing yardage total, sixth-most rushing touchdowns and seventh most scores overall.

He’s could be in line to improve all those numbers and vie to be the top back again in 2011, but his absence from camp means less chemistry with his team and less time to get into playing shape. Titans’ owner Bud Adamswon’t make an offer until Johnson reports to camp, and Johnson won’t report to camp until an offer is made. As the hardball continues, it becomes more and more of a question mark whether Johnson will play in 2011.

If he doesn’t play, Javon Ringers is currently second on the depth chart. The former Michigan State star averaged 4.7 yards-per-carry in back-up duties last year, and is very elusive in space like Johnson.

So far this preseason, however, Jamie Harper has received the bulk of the carries, followed by Stafon Johnsonand Herb Donaldson. Pay attention to their third preseason game Saturday night against the Chicago Bears to see which back gets the nod as the starter.