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The NFC North is one of the deceptively talent-loaded divisions, with teams that used to be famous for their rough-and-tough defenses now flaunting their star power on offense. Here’s a preview of the fantasy talent team by team.
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler is like the rock band you used to jam with in high school – sure there are glimpses of hope but are you ever really going to reach your potential? In his second season in Chicago he did cut down on the number of interceptions, but there was also a decrease in passes attempted, yardages and touchdowns.
Heading into his second year in Mike Martz’s offense, he should feel more comfortable with the ins and outs of the system – not to mention he’s getting a boost in his receiving corps. Roy Williams, who enjoyed a career-best season under Martz in Detroit, comes over from the Cowboys. In 2006, Williams posted 82 receptions for 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns, earning Pro Bowl honors and finishing among the top 10 fantasy wideouts.
Williams is already the most talented receiver on the Bears, and automatically will become Cutler’s top target overDevin Hester. Martz predicts Williams will haul in between 70 and 80 catches in 2011, which he hasn’t done since that 2006-07 season with the Lions. The combination of Cutler’s arm strength with the ability William displayed prior to joining the Cowboys would likely make him a WR1. However, there’s a reason to be skeptical – so while he may have WR1 potential, draft as a WR2 with high upside.
Williams wasn’t the only Cowboy to make his way to the Windy City. Marion Barber joined the Bears after falling out of favor in Big D under head coach Jason Garrett, and registering just 374 yards all of last season. In Chicago, Barber is expected to receive goal line carries, an area where the Bears struggled with in 2011.
The Bears ranked 24th in the National Football League, as the team struggled to figure out whether Matt Forte orChester Taylor was the right guy to pound it in. The addition of Barber answers that question, and should also reduce the number of pass attempts by Cutler there – an area where he tends to force the ball – thereby cutting his interception total, too.
In touchdown-heavy leagues, consider Barber a late-round steal if he’s around; though don’t expect him to put up huge yardage totals. Forte, in the midst of negotiating a contract extension, should continue to receive the bulk of the carries, as well as a threat out of the backfield to catch 50 to 60 passes for a handful of touchdowns.
Detroit Lions
It’s almost cliché to say this now, but if the Lions’ Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for a full season then the team may not only be a playoff-caliber team, but a fantasy haven.
The Lions' Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson could be one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL in 2011.
Unable to play a full 16-game schedule in his first two years in the leagues, Stafford is always a risk to draft. But, like other injury-prone quarterbacks (i.e.Michael Vick) loaded with talent, there’s a high upside. The Lions attempted the third most passes in the NFL last season (633), with a combination of Stafford (for three games), Shaun Hilland Drew Stanton. The three combined for 3,810 yards and 26 touchdowns, which should resemble Stafford’s 2011 projections over 16 games.
No matter who the quarterback is, though, it’ll Calvin Johnson they’re targeting most of the time. Megatron, entering his fifth year with the Lions, is coming off a 1,100-yard, 12-touchdown campaign where he didn’t know who his quarterback was each week.
Consider this: in 2009, when Stafford started 10 games for the Lions in his rookie season, the quarterback-receiver tandem combined for 728 yards and four touchdowns. Together, their chemistry and talent ceiling could be among the best in the league in 2011.
Another one of Stafford’s receiving threats is Jahvid Best, the second-year back who turned heads during the first few weeks last season before suffering a turf toe injury. The Lions drafted bruiser Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois to complement Best, but the rookie was injured during training camp and will miss the remainder of the season. Best’s draft stock, of course, was lifted due to the injury. Here’s what you can expect.
Green Bay Packers
In Titletown, the Pack is gearing up for another Super Bowl run, and another chance to be the most electrifying offense in the entire league.
Headlined by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the talent on Green Bay’s offense is the type of players you want to target in your drafts, according to the age-old mantra of getting players on highly productive offenses. But you don’t need me to lecture you on Rodgers, who, aside from Vick could be the No. 1 fantasy player in 2011.
Ryan Grant returns to the Packers after missing 2010 due to injury. A motivated, hungry Grant immediately regains his starting role, over sophomore James Starks, and is a solid RB2 that you can snag in the later rounds.
In 2008 and 2009, Grant rushed for over 1,200 yards, and in his first three seasons scored 24 total touchdowns. Green Bay notoriously runs a pass-first offense, but as we saw in the playoffs, they use the pass to establish the rushing attack. Grant should put together another 1,000-yard season and find the end zone at least eight or so times.
In the receiving corps, expect Donald Driver to lose another step, allowing the recently resigned James Jonesstart as the flanker opposite Greg Jennings. Jones should see an increase in receptions and touchdowns given his new role, though be cautious when dealing with an offense with so many receivers.
Jennings is probably the only safe WR1 among these receivers — Jones, Jordy Nelson are safer bets as WR3.Rookie Randall Cobb, the rookie out of Kentucky, likely won’t supplant Nelson as the team’s third wideout this year, but he has been “a natural” there in the preseason thus far.
Another popular debate is whether or not to draft Jermichael Finley, the talented but oft-injured tight end. Finley has without a doubt a huge upside and the potential to finish the season with Antonio Gates-like numbers. But he’s missed games in each of his first three seasons, which makes past and future owners a bit weary.
Finley swears he’ll be healthy and have a definite impact this season, which sounds great and all, but really can’t protect him from a linebacker crushing his knee Week 4. If you decide to get Finley, handcuff him with Andrew Quarless, his back-up who totaled 148 yards in the final six games of the season.
Minnesota Vikings
Out with old and in with the old — the Vikings replaced Brett Favre with Donovan McNabb this offseason, hoping to recapture the magic of the Vike’s offense from 2009 when they made a run to the NFC Championship game.
Many consider McNabb on his last legs, essentially his career over. But there’s an argument to be made that his 2010 season in Washington under Mike Shanahan was merely an aberration.
McNabb threw just 14 touchdowns, compared to 15 picks, last season, the first time his touchdown total was less than his interception total. In 2009, his last season with Philadelphia, McNabb thew from 22-10, one of his more productive seasons in his career.
With Minnesota, McNabb will unite with offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who utilizes the West Coast offenses that McNabb has been the focal point in 11 of his 12 NFL seasons.
Of course, at the age 34 going on 35, he may not be a lock for a 25-touchdown season, but he could be drafted as a solid back-up with surprising upside.
The problem is McNabb is dealing with a talentless wide receiver corps. Gone is Sidney Rice, and what’s left isMichael Jenkins. Of course Percy Harvin is still around, but the talented weapon is a migraine waiting to happen, and doesn’t have to skill-set to be a possession wide receiver.
Oh, there is Bernard Berrian, B-Twice to the ladies. Haven’t seen him in quite some time.
Perhaps the only safe player in Minnesota to draft is Adrian Peterson, who will benefit from McNabb’s presence because defenses won’t be able to load up the box like they did against Joe Webb or would have if Christian Ponder was starting.
Peterson is a lock for double-digit touchdowns, and is the best running back in all formats. Peterson is likely to see an increase in his statistics as a pass-catcher in Musgrave’s scheme — not to mention he’s in a contract season. Draft with ease.
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