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Is Michael Vick the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy QB in 2011?
Dallas Cowboys
Garrett, an offensive guru, demonstrated why Jerry Jones viewed him as a future head coach in the National Football League, helping a Jon Kitna-led squad to the seventh highest scoring team in the league, averaging over 360 yards per game. Now insert Romo into the mix. Since 2006, Romo has completed more than 60 percent of his passes, and since becoming a full-fledge starter in 2007 has averaged 4,000 yards through the air and nearly 30 touchdowns.
Romo’s best season came in 2009 during the emergence of wideout Miles Austin. He has always had a solid No. 1 WR to throw to (Terrell Owens included), but now has the combination of Austin and second-year stud Dez Bryant, not to mention Jason Witten and Felix Jones, a palpable option out of the backfield.
When healthy, Romo finishes among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. While I wouldn’t expect him to finish in the top tier – Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning – Romo could easily match stats withDrew Brees or Philip Rivers.
His weapons – Austin and Bryant – are one of the few duos in the league that both can be considered WR1 on the same team. Austin seemed to disappoint owners in 2010 after a breakout campaign the year prior, but aside from a drop in touchdowns (11 to seven) Austin still managed over 1,000 yards and averaged more than four receptions per game.
Kitna seemed more comfortable throwing to Bryant and Witten; he did not target Austin until Bryant was lost for the year. Romo has developed a comfort playing with Austin, and opposing defenses are going to have to target either him or Bryant. He’s in store for another huge year.
On the other side, Bryant is also likely to surpass the 1,000-yard mark. His superior athleticism and downfield speed, though, makes him more prone to making the big play. In 12 games Bryant had six touchdowns; he could be more of a threat in touchdown-heavy leagues, finishing the season with eight to 10 scores.
New York Giants
The G-Men resigned feature-back Ahmad Bradshaw, but other than that deserve an F for their free agency performance. The team lost tight end Kevin Boss, slot receiver Steve Smith and most of their starting offensive linemen. This means there will be a lot of younger players getting opportunities for snaps.
Smith fled New York to join the rival Eagles, opening the slot role for either Victor Cruz or Dominik Hixon. Cruz, according to offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride and general manager Jerry Reese, is the likely successor to Smith. During the 2010 preseason, Cruz caught 15 balls for nearly 300 yards and four scores, but injuries and derailed any hopes of getting action in the regular season. Cruz has WR3 upside if he solidifies a spot in the starting lineup this year.
As Boss signed with Oakland Raiders this offseason, third-year tight end Travis Beckum will get the nod as the starter. Beckum’s an unproven commodity, with just 21 career receptions for 171 yards. In three years starting for the Giants, Boss averaged around 500 yards and five touchdowns; expect Beckum – who is more athletic than Boss – to produce similar numbers as a red zone target for Eli Manning.
The wide receiver carousel leaves Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham as the starting wideouts. Nicks, considered a top-five talent in some rankings, definitely has that sort of upside, especially after a 1,000-yard, 11-touchdown season in 2010. He may be the most under-the-radar top 10 wide receiver this year.
Manningham established himself last season as a legitimate NFL receiver. His nine touchdowns and 944 receiving yards are easily overlooked, as his finished in the top 20 for his position. He also had the longest reception last year. He could be a late-round steal as well.
Philadelphia Eagles
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room – is Vick the No. 1 fantasy quarterback?
There are so many different perspectives on this: Does his proneness to injury affect his draft stock? Will he play in all 16 games this year? Are we overrating his 2010 statistics?
Here’s my view: Vick is such a threat, as a quarterback and running back, that even if he were to miss a handful of games, the numbers he will post will still be worth it for the games he does play in. and based on last season, if he were to stay healthy for all 16 games, his final season statistics would look like: 4,000 passing yards, 900 rushing yards and 40 total touchdowns. In other words, dominance.
If you’re in an eight-team league, or a 10-team league, it is still possible to find a capable fill-in for Vick if he were to miss time due to injury. There’s also his back-up, Vince Young, who could easily throw for touchdowns and run one in himself with the talent he’s surrounded with in Philly. In Tennessee, Young had Chris Johnson, but dealt with receivers like Justin Gage and Roydell Williams.
As for the rest of the Eagles, there’s no risk in drafting DeSean Jackson, who, every year is overlooked because he’s simply a big-play threat. He may only catch three to four passes per game, but he averaged 75 yards 7.5 touchdowns the past two years, while finishing with more than 1,000 yards. In leagues where 40-plus-yard touchdowns are rewards, Jackson’s a steal. But if you’re looking for PPR value, Jackson should be passed on.
Injury concerns are definitely understood with Jeremy Maclin, who is supposed to become the Eagles’ possession receiver this season. No one understands what’s going on with Maclin, but head coach Andy Reid said he was optimistic he’d be ready for Week 1.
Maclin improved drastically from year one to year two, increasing receptions, yardage total and touchdowns. He doesn’t have the prototypical makeup of a possession receiver (i.e. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald), but with Jackson a threat to go deep every play, Maclin has the opportunity to catch the short and intermediate routes.
If Maclin is not healthy, expect Smith to assume his role when healthy. Second-year receiver Riley Cooper and slot man Jason Avant are also candidates for more catches if Maclin is not on the field, as well as Brent Celek and running back LeSean McCoy.
As for McCoy, don’t expect too much of a downgrade with the addition of Ronnie Brown. Although it could be argued Brown was brought in for goal-line duties, he’s not expected to be a major threat to McCoy’s workload. In the red zone, expect McCoy, Celek and Vick himself to be the primary targets.
Washington Redskins
Want to talk fantasy quarterbacks? Then I suggest we stay away from the Washington Redskins. The quarterback competition between Rex Grossman and John Beck is laughable, but you would have to expect that given his skill-set and his preseason performance thus far that Mike Shanahan would opt for the experienced Grossman this year. It will bring him that much closer to drafting Andrew Luck in April.
Shanahan prefers quarterbacks who can utilize the rollout effectively (i.e. Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler), which Grossman can actually do. At least Grossman, despite the doubters in Chicago in 2006, helped the Bears all the way to the Super Bowl. That season, he threw for just under 3,200 yards and 23 touchdowns, in addition to his 20 picks.
Fortunately, with a Shanahan offense comes a solid running game. It’s also a guessing game. The incumbent,Ryan Torain, is in the midst of competition with Tim Hightower, who the team traded for from the Arizona Cardinals. Torain, often injured, racked up 742 yards in 10 games last season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Hightower, who lost his job to first-round selection Beanie Wells, averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2010, but managed 736 yards and five touchdowns in split duties.
Hightower will presumably be the starter, considering the Skins traded for him after already having Torain andKeiland Williams, and drafting Roy Helu from Nebraska and Evan Royster from Penn State. Like his M.O. with the Denver Broncos, the crowded backfield will be a week-to-week adventure for fantasy owners, so it’s suggested to draft cautiously. Many experts predict Helu will finish the season as the team’s starter, but with this much depth that’s hardly a lock.
The Skins bolstered their wide receiving corps with free agent Donte Stallworth and third-round draft choiceLeonard Hankerson from Miami (FL). Santana Moss is still the No. 1 wide receiver, though he barely possesses WR2 value. He should be drafted as a WR3, as he’s on his last legs on a really shaky offense.
Jabar Gaffney, who the Skins traded for from Denver, put together an 875-yard, two-touchdown season in 2010, his best season as a pro. He doesn’t have too much upside either. Anthony Armstrong, who finished second in receiving yards and touchdowns last year in D.C., likely has the most upside, and could surpass Gaffney on the depth chart at some point this season. Hankerson and Stallworth are long shots to have an impact this season.
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