Fantasy Preview: NFC North

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The NFC North is one of the deceptively talent-loaded divisions, with teams that used to be famous for their rough-and-tough defenses now flaunting their star power on offense. Here’s a preview of the fantasy talent team by team.

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler is like the rock band you used to jam with in high school – sure there are glimpses of hope but are you ever really going to reach your potential? In his second season in Chicago he did cut down on the number of interceptions, but there was also a decrease in passes attempted, yardages and touchdowns.

Heading into his second year in Mike Martz’s offense, he should feel more comfortable with the ins and outs of the system – not to mention he’s getting a boost in his receiving corps. Roy Williams, who enjoyed a career-best season under Martz in Detroit, comes over from the Cowboys. In 2006, Williams posted 82 receptions for 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns, earning Pro Bowl honors and finishing among the top 10 fantasy wideouts.

Williams is already the most talented receiver on the Bears, and automatically will become Cutler’s top target overDevin Hester. Martz predicts Williams will haul in between 70 and 80 catches in 2011, which he hasn’t done since that 2006-07 season with the Lions. The combination of Cutler’s arm strength with the ability William displayed prior to joining the Cowboys would likely make him a WR1. However, there’s a reason to be skeptical – so while he may have WR1 potential, draft as a WR2 with high upside.

Williams wasn’t the only Cowboy to make his way to the Windy City. Marion Barber joined the Bears after falling out of favor in Big D under head coach Jason Garrett, and registering just 374 yards all of last season. In Chicago, Barber is expected to receive goal line carries, an area where the Bears struggled with in 2011.

The Bears ranked 24^th in the National Football League, as the team struggled to figure out whether Matt Forte orChester Taylor was the right guy to pound it in. The addition of Barber answers that question, and should also reduce the number of pass attempts by Cutler there – an area where he tends to force the ball – thereby cutting his interception total, too.

In touchdown-heavy leagues, consider Barber a late-round steal if he’s around; though don’t expect him to put up huge yardage totals. Forte, in the midst of negotiating a contract extension, should continue to receive the bulk of the carries, as well as a threat out of the backfield to catch 50 to 60 passes for a handful of touchdowns.

Detroit Lions

It’s almost cliché to say this now, but if the Lions’ Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for a full season then the team may not only be a playoff-caliber team, but a fantasy haven.

The Lions' Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson could be one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL in 2011.

Unable to play a full 16-game schedule in his first two years in the leagues, Stafford is always a risk to draft. But, like other injury-prone quarterbacks (i.e.Michael Vick) loaded with talent, there’s a high upside. The Lions attempted the third most passes in the NFL last season (633), with a combination of Stafford (for three games), Shaun Hilland Drew Stanton. The three combined for 3,810 yards and 26 touchdowns, which should resemble Stafford’s 2011 projections over 16 games.

No matter who the quarterback is, though, it’ll Calvin Johnson they’re targeting most of the time. Megatron, entering his fifth year with the Lions, is coming off a 1,100-yard, 12-touchdown campaign where he didn’t know who his quarterback was each week.

Consider this: in 2009, when Stafford started 10 games for the Lions in his rookie season, the quarterback-receiver tandem combined for 728 yards and four touchdowns. Together, their chemistry and talent ceiling could be among the best in the league in 2011.

Another one of Stafford’s receiving threats is Jahvid Best, the second-year back who turned heads during the first few weeks last season before suffering a turf toe injury. The Lions drafted bruiser Mikel Leshoure out of Illinois to complement Best, but the rookie was injured during training camp and will miss the remainder of the season. Best’s draft stock, of course, was lifted due to the injury. Here’s what you can expect.

Green Bay Packers

In Titletown, the Pack is gearing up for another Super Bowl run, and another chance to be the most electrifying offense in the entire league.

Headlined by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the talent on Green Bay’s offense is the type of players you want to target in your drafts, according to the age-old mantra of getting players on highly productive offenses. But you don’t need me to lecture you on Rodgers, who, aside from Vick could be the No. 1 fantasy player in 2011.

Ryan Grant returns to the Packers after missing 2010 due to injury. A motivated, hungry Grant immediately regains his starting role, over sophomore James Starks, and is a solid RB2 that you can snag in the later rounds.

In 2008 and 2009, Grant rushed for over 1,200 yards, and in his first three seasons scored 24 total touchdowns. Green  Bay notoriously runs a pass-first offense, but as we saw in the playoffs, they use the pass to establish the rushing attack. Grant should put together another 1,000-yard season and find the end zone at least eight or so times.

In the receiving corps, expect Donald Driver to lose another step, allowing the recently resigned James Jonesstart as the flanker opposite Greg Jennings. Jones should see an increase in receptions and touchdowns given his new role, though be cautious when dealing with an offense with so many receivers.

Jennings is probably the only safe WR1 among these receivers — Jones, Jordy Nelson are safer bets as WR3.Rookie Randall Cobb, the rookie out of Kentucky, likely won’t supplant Nelson as the team’s third wideout this year, but he has been “a natural” there in the preseason thus far.

Another popular debate is whether or not to draft Jermichael Finley, the talented but oft-injured tight end. Finley has without a doubt a huge upside and the potential to finish the season with Antonio Gates-like numbers. But he’s missed games in each of his first three seasons, which makes past and future owners a bit weary.

Finley swears he’ll be healthy and have a definite impact this season, which sounds great and all, but really can’t protect him from a linebacker crushing his knee Week 4. If you decide to get Finley, handcuff him with Andrew Quarless, his back-up who totaled 148 yards in the final six games of the season.

Minnesota Vikings

Out with old and in with the old — the Vikings replaced Brett Favre with Donovan McNabb this offseason, hoping to recapture the magic of the Vike’s offense from 2009 when they made a run to the NFC Championship game.

Many consider McNabb on his last legs, essentially his career over. But there’s an argument to be made that his 2010 season in Washington under Mike Shanahan was merely an aberration.

McNabb threw just 14 touchdowns, compared to 15 picks, last season, the first time his touchdown total was less than his interception total. In 2009, his last season with Philadelphia, McNabb thew from 22-10, one of his more productive seasons in his career.

With Minnesota, McNabb will unite with offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, who utilizes the West Coast offenses that McNabb has been the focal point in 11 of his 12 NFL seasons.

Of course, at the age 34 going on 35, he may not be a lock for a 25-touchdown season, but he could be drafted as a solid back-up with surprising upside.

The problem is McNabb is dealing with a talentless wide receiver corps. Gone is Sidney Rice, and what’s left isMichael Jenkins. Of course Percy Harvin is still around, but the talented weapon is a migraine waiting to happen, and doesn’t have to skill-set to be a possession wide receiver.

Oh, there is Bernard Berrian, B-Twice to the ladies. Haven’t seen him in quite some time.

Perhaps the only safe player in Minnesota to draft is Adrian Peterson, who will benefit from McNabb’s presence because defenses won’t be able to load up the box like they did against Joe Webb or would have if Christian Ponder was starting.

Peterson is a lock for double-digit touchdowns, and is the best running back in all formats. Peterson is likely to see an increase in his statistics as a pass-catcher in Musgrave’s scheme — not to mention he’s in a contract season. Draft with ease.

Fantasy Preview: AFC North

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The AFC North is notorious for its defensive reputation. In 2011 that remains true. There are a few elite fantasy football stars in the division, though, and some middle to late-round sleepers you could snatch up later in your draft.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens dropped a load of dead weight this offseason, allowing receivers Derrick Mason, Donte Stallworthand T.J. Houshmandzadeh to leave, as well as longtime tight end Todd Heap and backs Willis MacGahee andLe’Ron McClain.

The loss of the veterans means an increased importance of the young players the organization has put their faith in. Joe Flacco will have a new cast of wideouts to throw to, including second- and fourth-rounders Torrey Smith(Maryland) and Tandon Doss (Indiana), and Lee Evans, who the team recently traded for from the Buffalo Bills.

Evans will get the nod opposite of Anquan Boldin, who should flourish as Flacco’s go-to guy in his second year in the system. Evans and Smith should command some attention from defensive backs with their deep-threat ability, and fit well with Flacco’s big arm. Doss, currently fourth on the depth chart, but his physical attributes may allow him to be a future dynasty pick.

Ray Rice enters the 2011 season in a contract year, playing behind a new fullback.

The Ravens added fullback Vonta Leachto the mix to pave holes for Ray Rice, who is entering a contract season. Rice is without a doubt the featured ball carrier this season; though Ricky Williams was brought as his back-up, he shouldn’t threaten Rice’s workload. The addition of Leach, considered one of the elite run-blocking fullbacks in the National Football League, puts Rice at the top of the second-tier running backs for 2011. Leach blocked for the Houston Texans’ Arian Foster last season.

The loss of Heap to the Arizona Cardinals was to make way for second-year tight ends Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta to enter the mix. Dickson will have the first shot to earn a starting gig, but Pitta impressed when Dickson missed time due to injury. Heap caught more than 50 passes for almost 600 yards and six touchdowns when healthy in 2009, and produced similar statistics last season despite missing time due to injury. It’s unlikely Dickson (or Pitta) will match those numbers immediately, but could be in store for three to four touchdowns as a TE2.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are a mess, period. Carson Palmer would at least give the team a glimpse of hope for fantasy relativity, but since Andy Dalton, the rookie out of TCU is currently getting first-team repetitions I would stray from drafting any Bengals in 2011.

Dalton has first-round selection A.J. Green to throw to, but it’s still a question whether he’ll be able to get the physically gifted wideout the ball. Jerome Simpson and Jordan Shipley’s values are also diminished.

The team managed to resign Cedric Benson, who’ll continue to steal carries for the more talented Bernard Scott. Benson’s best two seasons were with the Bengals the past two years, posting more than 1,000 yards and at least six touchdowns. However, in 2010, Benson averaged a mere 69.4 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry. He offers no pass-catching ability and lost five fumbles. He surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark only three times. Against division foes he’s managed 414 yards and two touchdowns – and that’s six times per year.

Scott, on the other hand, receives one-fifth the amount of carries Benson does, despite averaging nearly five yards per carry. Scott may not be able to carry the physical load like Benson, but should be featured as the clear change-of-pace back and given the ball in space more. Potential aside, Scott, along with the rest of the Bengals, should be avoided in drafts everywhere.

Cleveland Browns

Enshrined on the Madden ’12 cover, is Peyton Hillis in line for another 13 touchdown season with the Browns? Hillis averages between the top 12 to 20 running backs in 2011, projected to rush for just over 1,000 yards and find the end zone far fewer times.

The odds are stacked against Hillis’ chance of repeating his surprising 2010 season. He’s now joined byBrandon Jackson in a new offense, and Montario Hardesty is now healthy after missing all of 2010 due to injury. Hillis should receive a lighter workload, and his receiving numbers should drop due to Jackson’s third-down role.

Consider Hillis a RB2, with the chance of injury due to not only the supposed Madden curse but his rumbling, stumbling, bumbling running style that eventually will take a toll on his body.

Entering his second year in the pros, and first full year as the Browns’ starting quarterback, Colt McCoypossesses some fantasy relevance as a back-up. In eight games last year, McCoy threw for over 1,500 yards and six touchdowns, and ran another one in on the ground. In a full 16-game schedule, he projects to pass for around 3,000 yards, 12 touchdowns and perhaps a few more rushing scores.

McCoy can easily be overlooked because the odds are stacked against him as an NFL-level prospect. He does have a budding star in Mohamed Massaquoi at wide receiver, and as McCoy progresses Massaquoi gains more and more value. I’d take a flier on him in the later rounds because McCoy eventually will air it out to him.

The other receiver to keep an eye on is Brian Robiskie, not second-round selection Greg Little, who has yet to impress during training camp thus far. Robiskie improved from year one to year two, but like Massaquoi his ceiling is capped until McCoy proves he can be a capable passer.

The sleeper on the Browns this year is tight end Evan Moore, who despite being listed as No. 2 on the depth chart behind Ben Watson, has been touted as the best player in training camp this year. Moore had 16 receptions for 322 yards and a touchdown in a dozen games last season, but a 20-yard-per-catch average. The Browns use Moore split out wide like a slot receiver, and should see an increase in catches, possibly supplanting Watson in the lineup.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Perhaps the biggest steals of fantasy drafts in 2010 was Mike Wallace, who had seven 100-yard receiving games en route to a breakout campaign. Wallace had 10 touchdowns, and averaged an impressive 21 yards-per-catch and 80 yards-per-contest. Though he’s mostly in that DeSean Jackson mode as a big-play receiver, his electrifying speed is nearly unstoppable.

According to Rotoworld, Wallace was the only top-10 wide receiver not to finish in the top 15 of most-targeted. In other words, if Ben Roethlisberger looked Wallace’s way just a little bit more often, this guy could easily make his way into the top five come season’s end.

Wallace headlines a young receiving corps including Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Hines Ward is still the No. 2 wideout, and the team recently signed former Jet Jericho Cotchery. Brown is currently the slot receiver since Sanders underwent foot surgery this preseason, and it’s looking more and more likely Brown will get the nod ahead of him.

Neither Brown nor Sanders put together eye-opening campaigns last season, though their late-season impact is surely a forecast of their future roles on the team. It also spells the decline of Ward, now 35 and entering his 13th season in Pittsburgh. Ward caught 59 balls last year, the second lowest total of his career. He still found the end zone five times, which means he’s not completely irrelevant, but he’s a WR3 at best.

In the backfield, the often overlooked Rashard Mendenhall is entering his third year as the Steelers’ starter. He’s put together back-to-back 1,000-plus-yard seasons, increasing his touchdown total from eight to 13.

Mendenhall was a consistent RB1 all season long, scoring in 11 of 16 games, though he only surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark four times. He’s not going to impress in receiving numbers, averaging 24 catches the past two years, and Mewelde Moore taking third-down snaps. But Mendenhall is a dime in touchdown leagues, and is considered at the top of the second class of backs.

Also posted on: http://thecovertwo.com/2011/08/fantasy-preview-afc-north/

Fantasy Preview: NFC East

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Is Michael Vick the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy QB in 2011?

Dallas Cowboys

Garrett, an offensive guru, demonstrated why Jerry Jones viewed him as a future head coach in the National Football League, helping a Jon Kitna-led squad to the seventh highest scoring team in the league, averaging over 360 yards per game. Now insert Romo into the mix. Since 2006, Romo has completed more than 60 percent of his passes, and since becoming a full-fledge starter in 2007 has averaged 4,000 yards through the air and nearly 30 touchdowns.

Romo’s best season came in 2009 during the emergence of wideout Miles Austin. He has always had a solid No. 1 WR to throw to (Terrell Owens included), but now has the combination of Austin and second-year stud Dez Bryant, not to mention Jason Witten and Felix Jones, a palpable option out of the backfield.

When healthy, Romo finishes among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. While I wouldn’t expect him to finish in the top tier – Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning – Romo could easily match stats withDrew Brees or Philip Rivers.

His weapons – Austin and Bryant – are one of the few duos in the league that both can be considered WR1 on the same team. Austin seemed to disappoint owners in 2010 after a breakout campaign the year prior, but aside from a drop in touchdowns (11 to seven) Austin still managed over 1,000 yards and averaged more than four receptions per game.

Kitna seemed more comfortable throwing to Bryant and Witten; he did not target Austin until Bryant was lost for the year. Romo has developed a comfort playing with Austin, and opposing defenses are going to have to target either him or Bryant. He’s in store for another huge year.

On the other side, Bryant is also likely to surpass the 1,000-yard mark. His superior athleticism and downfield speed, though, makes him more prone to making the big play. In 12 games Bryant had six touchdowns; he could be more of a threat in touchdown-heavy leagues, finishing the season with eight to 10 scores.

New York Giants

The G-Men resigned feature-back Ahmad Bradshaw, but other than that deserve an F for their free agency performance. The team lost tight end Kevin Boss, slot receiver Steve Smith and most of their starting offensive linemen. This means there will be a lot of younger players getting opportunities for snaps.

Smith fled New York to join the rival Eagles, opening the slot role for either Victor Cruz or Dominik Hixon. Cruz, according to offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride and general manager Jerry Reese, is the likely successor to Smith. During the 2010 preseason, Cruz caught 15 balls for nearly 300 yards and four scores, but injuries and derailed any hopes of getting action in the regular season. Cruz has WR3 upside if he solidifies a spot in the starting lineup this year.

As Boss signed with Oakland Raiders this offseason, third-year tight end Travis Beckum will get the nod as the starter. Beckum’s an unproven commodity, with just 21 career receptions for 171 yards. In three years starting for the Giants, Boss averaged around 500 yards and five touchdowns; expect Beckum – who is more athletic than Boss – to produce similar numbers as a red zone target for Eli Manning.

The wide receiver carousel leaves Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham as the starting wideouts. Nicks, considered a top-five talent in some rankings, definitely has that sort of upside, especially after a 1,000-yard, 11-touchdown season in 2010. He may be the most under-the-radar top 10 wide receiver this year.

Manningham established himself last season as a legitimate NFL receiver. His nine touchdowns and 944 receiving yards are easily overlooked, as his finished in the top 20 for his position. He also had the longest reception last year. He could be a late-round steal as well.

Philadelphia Eagles

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room – is Vick the No. 1 fantasy quarterback?

There are so many different perspectives on this: Does his proneness to injury affect his draft stock? Will he play in all 16 games this year? Are we overrating his 2010 statistics?

Here’s my view: Vick is such a threat, as a quarterback and running back, that even if he were to miss a handful of games, the numbers he will post will still be worth it for the games he does play in. and based on last season, if he were to stay healthy for all 16 games, his final season statistics would look like: 4,000 passing yards, 900 rushing yards and 40 total touchdowns. In other words, dominance.

If you’re in an eight-team league, or a 10-team league, it is still possible to find a capable fill-in for Vick if he were to miss time due to injury. There’s also his back-up, Vince Young, who could easily throw for touchdowns and run one in himself with the talent he’s surrounded with in Philly. In Tennessee, Young had Chris Johnson, but dealt with receivers like Justin Gage and Roydell Williams.

As for the rest of the Eagles, there’s no risk in drafting DeSean Jackson, who, every year is overlooked because he’s simply a big-play threat. He may only catch three to four passes per game, but he averaged 75 yards 7.5 touchdowns the past two years, while finishing with more than 1,000 yards. In leagues where 40-plus-yard touchdowns are rewards, Jackson’s a steal. But if you’re looking for PPR value, Jackson should be passed on.

Injury concerns are definitely understood with Jeremy Maclin, who is supposed to become the Eagles’ possession receiver this season. No one understands what’s going on with Maclin, but head coach Andy Reid said he was optimistic he’d be ready for Week 1.

Maclin improved drastically from year one to year two, increasing receptions, yardage total and touchdowns. He doesn’t have the prototypical makeup of a possession receiver (i.e. Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald), but with Jackson a threat to go deep every play, Maclin has the opportunity to catch the short and intermediate routes.

If Maclin is not healthy, expect Smith to assume his role when healthy. Second-year receiver Riley Cooper and slot man Jason Avant are also candidates for more catches if Maclin is not on the field, as well as Brent Celek and running back LeSean McCoy.

As for McCoy, don’t expect too much of a downgrade with the addition of Ronnie Brown. Although it could be argued Brown was brought in for goal-line duties, he’s not expected to be a major threat to McCoy’s workload. In the red zone, expect McCoy, Celek and Vick himself to be the primary targets.

Washington Redskins

Want to talk fantasy quarterbacks? Then I suggest we stay away from the Washington Redskins. The quarterback competition between Rex Grossman and John Beck is laughable, but you would have to expect that given his skill-set and his preseason performance thus far that Mike Shanahan would opt for the experienced Grossman this year. It will bring him that much closer to drafting Andrew Luck in April.

Shanahan prefers quarterbacks who can utilize the rollout effectively (i.e. Jake Plummer, Jay Cutler), which Grossman can actually do. At least Grossman, despite the doubters in Chicago in 2006, helped the Bears all the way to the Super Bowl. That season, he threw for just under 3,200 yards and 23 touchdowns, in addition to his 20 picks.

Fortunately, with a Shanahan offense comes a solid running game. It’s also a guessing game. The incumbent,Ryan Torain, is in the midst of competition with Tim Hightower, who the team traded for from the Arizona Cardinals. Torain, often injured, racked up 742 yards in 10 games last season, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Hightower, who lost his job to first-round selection Beanie Wells, averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2010, but managed 736 yards and five touchdowns in split duties.

Hightower will presumably be the starter, considering the Skins traded for him after already having Torain andKeiland Williams, and drafting Roy Helu from Nebraska and Evan Royster from Penn State. Like his M.O. with the Denver Broncos, the crowded backfield will be a week-to-week adventure for fantasy owners, so it’s suggested to draft cautiously. Many experts predict Helu will finish the season as the team’s starter, but with this much depth that’s hardly a lock.

The Skins bolstered their wide receiving corps with free agent Donte Stallworth and third-round draft choiceLeonard Hankerson from Miami (FL). Santana Moss is still the No. 1 wide receiver, though he barely possesses WR2 value. He should be drafted as a WR3, as he’s on his last legs on a really shaky offense.

Jabar Gaffney, who the Skins traded for from Denver, put together an 875-yard, two-touchdown season in 2010, his best season as a pro. He doesn’t have too much upside either. Anthony Armstrong, who finished second in receiving yards and touchdowns last year in D.C., likely has the most upside, and could surpass Gaffney on the depth chart at some point this season. Hankerson and Stallworth are long shots to have an impact this season.

Fantasy Preview: AFC East

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Today marks the first of eight division previews in a series of my fantasy sleeper series. Beginning with the AFC East, we’ll examine possibly breakout candidates that you could target in the earlier, middle and later rounds of your fantasy football draft.

Tom Brady and Ochocinco should be a dynamic duo in 2011 for fantasy owners.

The AFC East is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will have trouble scoring again in 2011, after finishing 28^th and 30^th, respectively, a season ago.

The New York Jets, the 13^th-highest scoring offense in 2010, have regressed on the offensive side of the ball after losing Braylon Edwards, the team’s leading receiver, and Jericho Cotchery, a safety valve for Mark Sanchez.

Perhaps the team who led the National Football League in scoring last season will repeat, especially adding Chad Ochocinco to the receiving core. The New England Patriots’ rookie tight ends have a year in the system under their belt, and added two more weapons in the backfield in Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen in the 2011 draft.

Here’s a list of possible sleepers in the division:

Buffalo Bills

Though he’s not a top-tier quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick put together a 3,000-yard campaign last season, despite a lack of talent surrounding him. Fitzpatrick started 13 games, the most in a season of his career, likely projecting for more than 3,500 if given a full 16-game season.

Fitzpatrick lost Lee Evans, who for many years led the Bills in receiving yardage. Instead, he found Speedy Stevie Johnson, who compiled 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns with Fitzpatrick behind center. Johnson is the clear-cut starting wideout in Buffalo, with a WR2 ceiling as long as Fitzpatrick stays health. It’s not like Tyler Thigpen is pushing him for his job.

There’s also been talk of Donald Jones replacing Evans’ production as the starting flanker opposite Johnson. It appears as if David Nelson, though, is a superior option out of the slot, considering there’s no true receiving threat from the tight end position. Nelson, according to Pro Football Focus, led all wide receivers with 94.35 percent of his snaps from the slot last year. Jones caught more than 58 percent of his passes over the middle and on plays short of 10 yards, giving him more value in PPR leagues.

In the backfield, Fred Jackson is once again going to be the team’s leading rusher, as C.J. Spiller will prove yet again he did not warrant the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 draft. Spiller didn’t surpass 300 yards rushing in his rookie season, nor did he impress much as a receiver out of the backfield. He scored two touchdowns, one on a kickoff return. Head coach Chan Gailey has stated he wants to use Spiller in a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles type of role; but it’s yet to be seen whether Spiller has the talent of those two third-down backs.

Miami Dolphins

The fan don’t want Chad Henne to play quarterback; but head coach Tony Sparano doesn’t seem to really care…even if second-stringer Matt Moore outplayed him thus far in the preseason. Henne, considered a steal in the second round of the NFL Draft a few years back, has failed to impress in his first two seasons as the Fins’ starter.

Henne has improved each year – slightly – increasing his completion percentage, yardage total, touchdowns, as well as interceptions. He finished in the bottom third of fantasy quarterback rankings in 2010, despite the addition of Brandon Marshall to his receiving corps.

Understandably, Moore doesn’t even match up to Kyle Orton, who was nearly traded from the Denver Broncosearlier in the offseason. However, he hasn’t really received the credit he’s due as an NFL quarterback.

Dealing with inferior talent in Carolina, Moore, in five games started before missing the season due to injury, threw for 857 yards and five touchdowns while completing 55 percent of his passes. It doesn’t sound like much, but consider this: he played against the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams and New Orleans Saints – four teams whose defense ranked in the top half of the league’s best against the pass.

Overall, in 14 more career starts, Henne has a 27-33 TD-INT ratio. Moore: 16-17. Tell me why Henne is that much better.

Among the Dolphins’ skill players, the team traded in the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams for Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, the second-round bruiser out of Kansas State. Currently Bush is penciled in as the starter, but we’ve seen in New Orleans that Bush doesn’t have the capabilities to be an every-down back. It’s just a matter of time before Thomas starts stealing Bush’s carries, and Bush assumes third-down responsibilities.

Despite an offseason stabbing, Marshall is above and beyond the best receiving threat on the Dolphins. Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are No. 2 and 3, respectively, with Bess’ sure hands out of the slot a sure option to finish second on the team in receptions, a solid performer in PPR leagues. Aside from the top three, it’s a crop of unproven receivers, none of which seem to have fantasy value. Anthony Fasano, who is tied with Bess for the most touchdown receptions with Henne quarterbacking, barely warrants a TE3 ranking.

New York Jets

Losing Edwards and Cotchery and signing Derrick Mason and Plaxico Burress is definitely a gamble for the Jets, and Sanchez. Edwards, always chastised for dropped passes, only let one ball slip through his fingers last season and proved to be a clutch performer in the postseason. Cotcher, never a fantasy superstar, has faltered to fifth on the depth chart for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mason provides Sanchez with a reliable, veteran presence. With Burress sidelined with injuries and an overwhelming question mark hovering over his effectiveness, Mason will likely start opposite Santonio Holmes, the deep threat and most talented and productive receiver on the team. Mason, though, despite his age, caught 60 balls for over 900 yards and seven scores with the Baltimore Ravens last year, and will likely average between 11 and 20 yards per catch. In the red zone, an area where the Jets are looking to improve their offense, Mason had six touchdowns a year ago.

Also helping their red-zone offense is jump-and-catch specialist Burress, who, if healthy, will be a candidate for six-to-eight scores in 2011. The cornerbacks in the AFC East alone will not be able to defend Burress’ height and hands. Burress has a high ceiling in TD-heavy leagues, but shouldn’t be drafted as a solid WR3 until it’s known he’s healthy.

It’s finally Shonn Greene in New York, as the former Iowa Hawkeye has been given the keys to the backfield overLaDainian Tomlinson. Greene was overdrafted in leagues far too often last year, primarily because of his impressive playoff performances the season prior. With LT version 3.0 relegated to a candidate for third-down duties – along with second-year back Joe McKnight – Greene will headline the Jets’ run-heavy ground-and-pound attack.

When it’s all said and done, Greene will finish among the top 10 to 12 fantasy running backs this season. On his last legs, Tomlinson finished in the top 20. Greene, receiving 39 less touches, only finished 148 yards behind him. Switch that around, Greene should finish the season with over 900 yards. Greene will also assume goal-line carries, which should help increase his touchdown total to about eight.

New England Patriots

The top-scoring offense in 2010, with the most touchdown passes (37) and eighth-most yards overall (5,820) added more to their arsenal this season. And yes, they still have Tom Brady.

The 2011 NFL MVP, Brady and Michael Vick vied for No. 1 fantasy quarterbacks honors last season, with Brady throwing for 3,900 yards and 36 touchdowns to a cast of unknown characters. In year two of the new-look Patriots, is Brady being – dare I say, underrated?

Brady is ranked behind Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Vick in most draft guides this year, despite Vick’s propensity for being injured and Manning coming off a missed training camp due to neck surgery. And still, Brady outproduced Rodgers head-to-head.

Added to his receiving core is Ochocinco, with an incentive to disprove the doubters who consider his career on the downside. The leading receiver last year was of course PPR specialist Wes Welker (848 yards), ahead of a revitalized Deion Branch and the tandem of tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.

Ochocinco is a breakout candidate because he’s not receiving the credit he ought to. In Cincinnati, playing underMarvin Lewis and owner Mike Brown, Ochocinco was disgruntled and had no motivation to put forth his best effort because he has no desire to stay with the organization. With a chance to make a deep playoff run and work with arguably the greatest passer of this generation, Ochocinco could emulate what Randy Moss did in 2007, emerging from the dark to be a top receiver, with WR1 potential.

The bigger question marks on the offense pertain to the tight end position, where both Hernandez and Gronkowki wowed in their rookie campaigns. Gronkowski is penciled in as the starter for now, but let’s be honest – that doesn’t carry too much meaning as long as Bill Belichick is still the head coach.

Hernandez began the season as the hot receiver, catching 32 balls between Weeks 1 and 8 for the Pats. He then caught four touchdowns in Weeks 10 to 14, finishing with six for the season.

On the other hand, Gronkowki was more an end zone producer. He caught 10 touchdowns, the most on the team, and surpassed the 100-yard mark in Week 16 against the Dolphins.

Hernandez’s athleticism and Gronkowski’s size make it difficult to decide which tight end will have the better 2011 season. Based upon the current depth chart and end-of-season production, Gronkowski is a better option in touchdown leagues, with Hernandez perhaps in store for more receptions and yards.

The other question mark comes in the backfield, where The Law Firm – BenJarvus Green-Ellis – the team’s leading rusher, has company in the form of a pesky Danny Woodhead and rookies Vereen and Ridley. Oh, and third-down specialist Kevin Faulk is healthy again.

While Vergeen has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, Ridley, the LSU product has thrived, running for 64 yards and two touchdowns, and catching seven passes for 47 yards and a score in the first preseason contest against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ridley may have the most talent in the backfield, coming off a 1,100 yard, 15-touchdown season as the featured back for the Tigers in 2010. However, the depth in the Pats’ backfield hurts his value, as the Hoodie will rotate the Law Firm, Woodhead and Faulk, as well as Ridley. The carousel hurts all their values.